For the final week of the regular season, we’re avoiding all the teams that will potentially be sitting many of their key players, because they are locked into their playoff spots or will be by the time they play.
That said, we’re taking one game Over, one game Under, one team looking to move up to the No. 2 seed (with help), a defending division champ closing out the deal again and, in the biggest game of the week, a home underdog winning a division title with a moneyline bet.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: Take UNDER 42 points (-110)
This O/U number is admittedly low, but so are the scores in their respective games. The Falcons have come in under this number four of their last six games, and the Saints have had scores under this point in three of their last four. The key here is the Saints have the 21st-ranked run defense and are allowing 4.5 yards a carry (No. 22). In their first meeting in Week 12, the Falcons rushed 41 times for 228 yards in a 24-15 win. In that game, there were nine scoring drives – six field goals, two offensive touchdowns, and one defensive TD. A similar result can be expected with the season on the line as neither team has been eliminated from the playoffs.
4
Take Jacksonville Jaguars and lay 3.5 points (-110) at Tennessee Titans
The Jaguars have stumbled down the stretch, and this number reflects it. Despite Trevor Lawrence returning to practice, the Jaguars have gone from 5.5-point favorites down to 3.5 points. There are a couple of other factors that are critical here. The Titans are the worst team in an improving division. They’re 0-5 against the division this season, including a 34-14 beatdown from the Jaguars in November, and have lost eight straight division games. The Jags pulled out of their tailspin last week with a 26-0 blowout of the Carolina Panthers and have what they need to hand the Titans a ninth straight division loss – four of them by their own hands.
3
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: OVER 45 points (-110)
The Packers could have clinched a playoff spot with a win against Detroit at home in Week 18 last year and didn’t get it done. The Bears could very well pull off a similar upset, but this bet is about how many points will be scored. The Packers have hoisted 33 points in each of their last two games and have allowed 30 or more in two of their last three – all against teams without an above .500 record (Tampa Bay, Carolina and Minnesota). Since coming back from injury, Justin Fields is 4-2, and the Bears have scored 27 or more points in three of their last four games. This one has every chance to be a score in the 50s, which is more than is needed.
2
Take Detroit Lions and lay 3.5 points (-110) vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Lions have clinched their division but are playing in the early window of games. In the unlikely event that both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles lose on the road – they both lost to Arizona, so anything is possible – winning means something in Detroit. The Vikings are a hot mess. They have lost three straight and five of their last six. In the last month, starting quarterbacks have been endangered species. Joshua Dobbs was benched (Week 15), Nick Mullens was benched (Week 17), and rookie Jaren Hall was benched (Week 18). Benching your starter three times in four weeks is a sign of desperation. The Lions may pull their starters, but it won’t be until they’re ahead by 17.
1
Take Miami Dolphins on the moneyline (+130) vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have been a great story the last month and slapped the Dolphins 48-20 in Week 4. They’ve won four straight and beat Kansas City and Dallas as half of those. But much in the same way the Bills had to earn their changing of the guard with the New England Patriots, so, too, must the Dolphins. This game is in Miami, and the Dolphins have too much on their side. Of their five losses, four of them have been on the road. Those losses have been to the Bills, Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, and Baltimore Ravens. No shame there. Their only home loss came against Tennessee – and the Dolphins had a 27-13 lead with three minutes to play. Buffalo has been playing “playoff football” for a month just to stay alive. The Dolphins still remember Week 4. Take a home team with something to prove every time.
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