The San Francisco 49ers typically have a type when it comes to their running backs. They eschew their highly-drafted young players in favor of more lightly-regarded prospects selected later or, sometimes, not at all. All in all, this philosophy gives head coach Kyle Shanahan an inexpensive platoon of effective running backs.
But now Shanahan and his Niners are moving in a different direction. Four days after scoring just 14 points against the rebuilding Atlanta Falcons, general manager John Lynch took a big swing to rebuild his offense — and keep a star tailback away from the rival Los Angeles Rams.
Christian McCaffrey, who led the league in yards from scrimmage in 2019, was traded from the Carolina Panthers to San Francisco late Thursday night in exchange for four draft picks, including 2023 second- and third-round selections, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
Stunner: Panthers are trading Pro-Bowl RB Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers in exchange for draft picks, sources tell ESPN.
McCaffrey returns to the Bay Area, where he attended Stanford. pic.twitter.com/R474r3eSkv
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 21, 2022
It’s a move that frees McCaffrey from a hopeless team and returns him to California after a storied career at Stanford University. It’s also a move that makes a ton of sense for a Niners offense whose playbook depends on papering over Jimmy Garoppolo’s inability to make throws downfield by surrounding him with players who can create huge gains after the catch.
With players like George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk in tow, San Francisco has led the NFL in yards after catch (YAC) in each of the last four seasons. This is necessary when your offense revolves around Garoppolo, who has completed just 43 deep balls (20-plus yards downfield) in five-plus seasons in the Bay Area (51 games). His 7.5 air yards per pass this season are his most since 2018 and still ranks just 20th among 33 qualified starting quarterbacks.
Despite that, San Francisco ranks fifth in the NFL by averaging 12.4 yards per catch. Now that unit replaces little-targeted Jeff Wilson (eight catches in 2022, 6.3 YAC) and an injured Eli Mitchell (19 catches, 7.9 YAC in 2021) with McCaffrey, who has 33 catches in six games and is averaging a career-best 8.9 YAC.
That’s a massive benefit for Garoppolo in 2022 and young quarterback Trey Lance in 2023 and beyond. And we haven’t even gotten to his running game yet!
McCaffrey remains a viable presence out of the backfield who now joins a solid platoon that’s been able to spin unheralded runners like Wilson, Mitchell and Raheem Mostert into players capable of gaining 100-plus yards on the ground in a given game. The former first round pick hasn’t been credited with as many broken tackles as in years past, but his 2.1 yards after contact is roughly in line with his career average. Pair that with the team’s 2.8 yards before contact per run — not great, but still good for 15th in the NFL — and you’ve got the recipe for the kind of ground game that reduces pressure on the passing offense.
Landing McCaffrey is a risk. He’d played only 10 games in 2020 and 2021 combined. His contract pays him $19 million annually and if the team wanted to move on from him in 2023 he’d leave behind more than $18 million in dead cap space.
But that’s the kind of bet you can make when you have an inexpensive starting quarterback (Lance) on a rookie contract. And it’s one Lynch may have been compelled to make given the Rams’ lack of playmakers and Cam Akers’ pending trade request.
Los Angeles built a championship team via trades that sacrificed future draft picks and cap flexibility to land current stars. It would be surprising if Rams GM Les Snead hadn’t at least called the Panthers to kick the tires on a McCaffrey deal.
Instead, the 49ers capitalized in hopes of propelling themselves to the top of disheveled NFC West. McCaffrey isn’t a cure-all, but he fits the San Francisco offense beautifully as a run-after-catch monster whose playmaking can make you forgot about Garoppolo’s once-per-quarter baffling throws. The Niners saw an opportunity in a winnable conference and took it.
Now we get to see what Christian McCaffrey can do in an offense with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. If nothing else, it’s gonna be fun to watch.
