In the NASCAR Cup regular season finale at Daytona, the math is simple for every driver currently below the cut-line, and that's because they are all done counting points. There is no scenario where any of them can point their way into the playoffs, leaving these drivers with one option -- win.
The only outliers are Alex Bowman (who holds the 16th and final spot) and Tyler Reddick 29 points ahead of him. If there are no new winners from below them, then they will be the only drivers to make the playoffs on points alone. However, if there is a new winner, then the holder of the final spot when the checkered flag flies will be bumped.
