Where on earth is conservatism going? In Britain, at least, the simple answer seems to be opposition, and possibly for a long time. Non-Tories scarred by previous Conservative poll recoveries and shock victories may not quite believe it yet, but a Tory implosion at the next general election is becoming likely, as their dramatically shrunken support in recent byelections has shown. Our electoral system can be brutal towards any party whose share of the vote falls below a third, and for many months most polls have put the Tories closer to a quarter.
Yet political disasters, or even just the threat of them, can also create new possibilities: the abandonment of old taboos and assumptions; the rise of new ideas, personalities, messages and alliances. Particularly since 2021, as three successive Tory premierships have become exercises in frantic reinvention, but also over a longer period of self-doubt and experimentation, a new Conservatism has been struggling to emerge.
