Last week the market resumed its upward march with the S&P 500 ($SPX) (SPY) closing the week up over 1.5%. Tesla also continued its insane run closing over $350/share for another weekly increase of almost 10%. Finally, Nvidia (NVDA) reported earnings and while they were positive, the stock did not do much as it closed the week basically flat.
This week is a short week with the holiday, but there are still plenty of things to watch on the news front. In addition, there is increasing tension overseas again as the Russia/Ukraine conflict appears to be getting more intense.
We are also entering a season of the market that has historically been associated with positive price action or “The Santa Claus Effect”. These are all things to keep an eye on.
Here are 5 things to watch this week in the Market
Thanksgiving
This week is a big week in the US with the Thanksgiving Holiday on Thursday. This passing officially marks the Christmas season as well. The markets are closed Thursday and have an early close on Friday. This could also bleed over into lighter than usual volume on Wednesday as well as many places wind down for a long weekend.
CB Consumer Confidence
First up on the week is the Consumer Confidence release Tuesday at 10 am. A strong number could be seen as a positive by the market, especially heading into the Christmas season which typically sees some of the highest spending of the year.
Prelim GDP
One of the larger releases this week is the Preliminary GDP. This could produce some substantial volatility in the market as it tries to digest how strong the economy is, especially compared to the advanced release which was last month. With the Fed indicating a slower decrease in rates if this comes in weaker than expected it could set the tone for the remainder of the short week. The opposite is true if it shows a resilient economy.
Core PCE
Speaking of a resilient economy, also out on Wednesday is the Core PCE which shows the change in the price of goods and services directed towards the consumer. This is one of the Fed's favorite tools for watching inflation, so if this comes in lower than expected we could see the market rally based on a lower rate of inflation and on the thought that the Fed has successfully slowed it down and can continue the rate cuts. If we come in hotter than expected we could see some volatility to the downside.
FOMC Meeting Minutes
Last up on the week is the FOMC meeting minutes Wednesday afternoon at 2 pm. This often has less impact on the market than the actual FOMC release, but still causes some volatility when dropped. We already know what the rate decision was, but the minutes should provide some additional insight into why they cut and what they see going forward.
Best of luck this week and don’t forget to check out my daily options article.
