The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is closely monitoring the revival of tourism ties between China and Japan, as this could potentially affect the inbound Chinese market to Thailand in the second half of the year, while the impacts of the Middle East conflict have yet to completely subside.
A number of Chinese tour agents had reportedly resumed selling tour packages to Japan for July and August, but some of them paused sales after the issue gained public attention last week.
Pattaraanong Na Chiangmai, deputy governor for international marketing in Asia and the South Pacific at TAT, said Thai tourism operators had also enquired with TAT about the development, but so far there has been no confirmation on the issue.
She said it was possible that the restrictions from China would be loosened, and the agency would take this factor into account when planning its marketing strategy for the Chinese market in the second half.
In the first five months, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan plummeted by 52% to 1.7 million, mainly attributed to restrictions on Chinese tour groups.
"If restrictions on outbound Chinese group tours to Japan are lifted, Thai tourism would be affected to some extent, as Japan remains one of the most popular destinations among Chinese travellers," she said.
Earlier this year, TAT aimed to revive the Chinese market to 6.73 million visitors, the same level as in 2024, when Thai tourism had not yet been affected by declining confidence stemming from scam-related issues, as it was in 2025, when arrivals plunged 33.5% to just 4.47 million.
However, the US–Israeli war with Iran has disrupted global travel, including in China, prompting the agency to reconsider its target for this year. The most likely forecast now stands at 5 million in 2026.
Siriges-a-nong Trirattanasongpol, executive director of the East Asia region at TAT, said the 60-day peace deal has yet to result in a quick resumption of international flights.
She said airlines still have to maintain profitable routes and cut those that underperform, which means most airlines from China opt for nearby destinations that are already popular among Chinese travellers, such as South Korea and Hong Kong, as these routes consume less jet fuel compared with flights bound for Thailand.
Although the ban has been lifted, airlines would still need some time to resume flights between China and Japan, as the number of flights has dropped by more than 55% during this summer alone.
Mrs Siriges-a-nong said Thailand should remain competitive for the remainder of this year, given that the country recorded growth of 17% to 2.5 million Chinese visitors as of June 20.
As TAT is formulating its action plan for 2027, she added that the Chinese market will continue to maintain growth despite intense competition from other countries.
