Thai exports are expected to contract in the first quarter, but they are likely to start recovering from the second quarter, according to the Commerce Ministry.
Phusit Ratanakul Sereroengrit, director-general of the International Trade Promotion Department, said yesterday that the country's exports in the first quarter of this year are still expected to be negative, partly due to the high base from the same period of last year.
Nevertheless, he noted that outbound shipments are expected to begin recovering in the second quarter, as it is believed that there will be an acceleration of imports to prepare for production and exports during this period.
The Commerce Ministry predicts that the slowdown in consumption and the global economy, alongside relatively high inflation, will inevitably affect exports during the remainder of this year.
Protracted geopolitical tensions could create trade hurdles for exports. However, the ministry has pledged to expand the markets for Thai products and enhance the potential of exporters in the world market, along with facilitating and creating trade opportunities through new trade cooperation, making Thailand an ideal trade and investment destination.
In addition, the ministry plans to organise more than 450 events this year to boost exports, including expansion in existing major markets, mainly in the Middle East, South Asia, China and CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam) by organising international trade fairs, joining trade missions with official delegations, and driving the expansion of online sales. The ministry also plans to open new trade markets which have potential in Central Asia, such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Consequently, these markets would help reduce the market concentration of Thai exports in 2023.
The Commerce Ministry still aims for export growth of 1-2% for the whole of this year, compared with a 5.5% increase in 2022, according to Mr Phusit.
The Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC) recently forecast that Thai exports would contract by 3-5% in the first quarter mainly because of the adverse impact of the global economic slowdown, before recovering to a 0.7% dip in the second quarter and posting gains of 1.8% and 9.8% in the third and the fourth quarters, respectively, partially helped by China's reopening, lower freight rates and high levels of global purchases.
The Commerce Ministry yesterday reported that the customs-cleared value of exports dipped for the fourth month in a row in January, falling 4.5% year-on-year to US$20.2 billion (700 billion baht), while imports increased by 5.5% in January to $24.8 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $4.64 billion.
Thai exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products have declined for four consecutive months, at a rate of -2.7% year-on-year in January, led by cassava products (-7.6%), rubber (-37.6%), canned and processed seafood (-4.8%), sugar (-2.3%), processed chicken (-2.2%), and pet food (-11.0%).
Industrial product exports declined for four consecutive months at a rate of -5.4% from the same month of last year, mainly from computers, equipment and parts (-21.2%), rubber products (-8.2%), gems and jewellery (excluding gold) (-3.8%), plastic pellets (-30.0%), and chemical products (-17.6%).
