HARLINGEN, Texas — Texas Republicans have not lost a statewide race since the mid-1990s. Heading into the November 2026 midterms, new polling, a bipartisan revolt over data centers and a self-inflicted scandal inside the GOP are combining to put that three-decade streak under more pressure than at any point in a generation.
Two years after Hispanic voters helped deliver Donald Trump his best-ever showing in Texas, several independently conducted polls now point the other way. A August 2026 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey found Hispanic Texans viewing Trump unfavorably by 51% to 42% — a sharp reversal from the dead-even 48-48 split the same pollster measured in October 2024.
A separate statewide poll of Hispanic likely voters, conducted for The Cook Political Report and TelevisaUnivision between August 26 and September 3, found Trump's job approval among that group had sunk to just 33%, with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading Attorney General Ken Paxton among Hispanics 63% to 30%, and Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa leading Gov. Greg Abbott 60% to 33% in that same group. In an oversample of the three South Texas congressional districts that swung hardest toward Trump in 2024, the same survey found Democrats ahead on the generic ballot by 14 points, 53% to 39% — a notable erosion of Republican strength in territory the GOP had counted on.
What the Statewide Horse Races Actually Show
Overall electorate polling remains far tighter than the Hispanic-only numbers suggest, and pollsters don't fully agree with one another. A September 9 survey from N+ Univision News and YouGov put Abbott and Hinojosa in a dead heat at 47% apiece statewide, with Hinojosa ahead among Hispanic voters by 12 points, 54% to 42% — a lead held together almost entirely by Latina women, who favored her by 18 points, while Latino men split nearly evenly. The same poll had Talarico leading Paxton by 5 points overall and by nearly 20 among Hispanics. Other pollsters, including Emerson College, have shown Abbott holding a steadier single-digit lead over Hinojosa in the full electorate, underscoring how much the race still hinges on turnout rather than a guaranteed Democratic wave.
Rising Costs and an AI Backlash Squeeze the GOP
Economic pressure is compounding the political problem. Border communities already among the poorest in the state have been hit by tariff-driven construction costs and climbing insurance and property-tax bills, according to on-the-ground campaign reporting. Layered on top is newer frustration with Texas's rapid embrace of AI infrastructure: a Texas Tribune analysis counted at least 248 planned data-center projects statewide, and a University of Houston Hobby School survey found nearly 63% of Houston-area residents opposed building one within a mile of their home.
The backlash grew sharp enough that Abbott, who once branded Texas the "epicenter of AI development," ordered regulators in early August to freeze new grid connections for planned facilities pending a statewide audit. Weeks later, discussing the industry's failure to win over local communities, he told ABC News in remarks reported by Axios that companies "basically dug their own grave for the problem." Lawmakers have separately raised alarms over the cost of the state's data-center tax exemption, which a Houston Chronicle analysis found has ballooned from roughly $15 million in its first two-year budget cycle to a projected $3.3 billion in the next one.
A Republican Party Feuding With Itself
Self-inflicted damage has made matters worse. Bo French, the GOP nominee for railroad commissioner, drew condemnation from members of his own party after posting comments disparaging South Asian students celebrating a University of Texas football win. Longtime Bush strategist Karl Rove announced in a Wall Street Journal column that he would back French's Democratic opponent, Jon Rosenthal, writing that "the GOP's stables need a cleaning." It marks only the second time in Rove's life he has voted for a Democrat, after backing Lt. Gov. Bob Bullock in 1994. Sen. John Cornyn said separately that French had lost his vote as well, though he stopped short of endorsing Rosenthal.
Money Still Tilts Toward the GOP
Despite the turbulence, Republicans retain a significant financial cushion. Abbott's campaign reported $105.7 million on hand entering 2026, and Trump-aligned spending is expected to dwarf what Democrats can put on the air in a state he carried by 14 points just two years ago. For context, Beto O'Rourke won 64% of the Latino vote in his narrow 2018 Senate loss — a benchmark Hinojosa and Talarico would need to approach, if not clear, to have a realistic shot in November.
As Tejano singer-turned-congressional-candidate Bobby Pulido put it in comments to CNN, Latino voters remain "the enigma that neither Republicans or Democrats have been able to figure out" — a dynamic that will shape not just this November, but the presidential races of 2028 and 2032 as well.
