DALLAS — The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade has sounded the bell for a new round in the fight over abortion rights that will be staged in ballot boxes instead of courtrooms.
The November midterm elections provide the first test of how the nation will respond to Friday’s ruling, and activists on both sides are rallying supporters.
In Texas and across the nation, voters will either elect candidates to pass laws reinstating abortion rights, or they will choose conservative legislators to uphold anti-abortion legislation.
Looking for a spark in what could be a tough midterm election year, Democrats are hoping for a backlash against the ruling that will lead to political victories.
But even with anger sparking fresh energy among Democrats, Republicans hold a structural advantage in November. Not only does the GOP have its own enthusiasm, but the gerrymandering of districts makes a power shift in the Texas Legislature nearly impossible.
Add President Joe Biden’s plummeting popularity and concerns over inflation, and the passion of the fight for abortion rights might not be enough to propel Democrats, especially in critical legislative races that will determine the party that writes the laws.
“Unless we’re all plunged into darkness because of a grid failure, there’s nothing in Texas that’s really competitive,” Plano political consultant Vinny Minchillo said. “There are other states where the abortion issue could make a difference, but here, most of the races are fait accompli.”
With many district races out of reach, veteran Democrats are targeting statewide showdowns. That includes the race for governor between former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott.
On Sunday, O’Rourke plans a rally in Austin for abortion rights. A Houston event in May after a leaked opinion foreshadowing the court’s decision drew thousands.
“People in Texas have been trained to think that their vote doesn’t matter,” former state Sen. Wendy Davis said of legislative races. “Those gerrymandered lines cannot touch us and our power in a statewide election.”
In 2013, Davis donned pink Mizuno Wave Riders for a 13-hour filibuster that scuttled an anti-abortion bill. It made her a national figure and set up an unsuccessful run for governor against Abbott.
“The fight is going to be for the long term,” she said. “We have to be resolved as to what it’s going to take.”
People on both sides are ready for it.
“Politicians everywhere, Texas in particular, should be very afraid because this rage is not going to be short term,” said Julie Ross, a North Texas health care advocate who says the Supreme Court ruling made her sick to her stomach.
Kimberlyn Schwartz, a spokeswoman for Texas Right to Life, said: “This basically just means that we’re on an even playing field … that we can go state-by-state and pass pro-life legislation without being suffocated by the federal court. This doesn’t mean this is the end of the pro-life fight.”
Gerrymandering gives Texas GOP an edge
Texas is the epicenter of the fight over abortion rights.
Since seizing control of the Texas House in 2002, Republicans have passed a slew of anti-abortion laws, including last year’s trigger law in anticipation of the fall of Roe vs. Wade. The law makes it a felony to perform an abortion and outsources enforcement to legal vigilantes. In response, clinics have closed and the number of abortions in Texas has sharply decreased.
Democrats have been powerless to stop the GOP’s conservative agenda because they don’t control the levers of state government. They haven’t won a statewide race since 1994, though the margin of Republican victories has decreased since Abbott’s 20-point win over Davis in 2014.
Last year, the Republican-controlled Legislature approved a redistricting plan designed to bolster its majority. The state has only a few competitive legislative or congressional districts, according to experts who have studied the newly approved boundaries.
“Under the new map, they would have to get close to 56% of the vote statewide to be favored to win a state House majority,” Michael Li, senior counsel for the Brennan Center for Justice’s Democracy Program, said of Democrats. “That seems out of reach for Democrats.”
Li said the political reality in Texas and other GOP-controlled states makes it more frustrating for abortion rights activists who want a fair shot at political change.
“There’s no question that the maps are made a lot less competitive, both at the congressional level and the legislative level because of gerrymandering,” Li said. “In his opinion, Justice [Samuel] Alito says that women are not politically powerless. Well, in Texas, some of that power has been taken away because the maps are deliberately designed to mute the voices of people who are opposed to those who are currently in charge.”
Ross, the health care advocate and progressive Democrat, said winning in legislative districts is possible, even with the disadvantages.
“You’ve heard it said that you can’t out-hustle, you can’t out-organize a system that’s rigged,” she said. “They underestimate our numbers. Texas will be one of many states where we see increased efforts in terms of organization, in terms of messaging, and in terms of a real plan of attack on how we’re going to respond and push more people to the polls.”
As Democrats mobilize, so do Texas Republicans.
They are targeting several traditionally Democratic congressional and legislative districts in South Texas, which has many Hispanic voters who are Catholic and conservative, important factors when it comes to abortion. If Republicans are successful, it would be disastrous for a Democratic Party hoping to turn the political tide.
“Republicans will continue to advocate for life, uphold the law, and stand against an extreme Democratic Party’s pro-abortion agenda,” said Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, who is spearheading an effort to make South Texas a congressional battleground.
North Texas key to Democratic push
Though flipping most red districts might be impossible, Democrats say they can win statewide races for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and others down the ballot.
Dallas County Democratic Party Chairwoman Kristy Noble said O’Rourke can be elected governor on the strength of the county’s voters. And some Republican-held Texas House districts could turn blue, she said, such as ones represented by Morgan Meyer of University Park and Angie Chen Button of Garland.
Noble said about 475,000 eligible Dallas County voters didn’t cast ballots in 2020, adding that she believes about 300,000 are Democrats.
“This could be one of those steps that get a lot of people engaged,” she said during an abortion rights rally in downtown Dallas. “We have the numbers to flip Texas and we have the numbers to change the trajectory of the nation, and more so now than ever, so Dallas County can play a pivotal role.”
The potential for massive turnout in Dallas County excites candidates like O’Rourke, who has said North Texas is key to beating Abbott. But getting nonvoters to the polls is a tough task, and it’s unclear if abortion rights is their motivating issue.
Dallas County Republican Party Chairwoman Jennifer Stoddard-Hajdu said that local Republicans are also energized, and that the abortion rights issue won’t be a runaway winner for Democrats.
“Score victory for life,” she said of the feeling among conservatives. “Having the Supreme Court say this is not a constitutional right, that this is left to the states to decide themselves, gives conservatives a lot to be excited about.”
Sen. Royce West, D-Dallas, agreed Democrats winning in Texas would be tough, but said at some point they have to deliver: “If Democrats aren’t able to put together a coalition of moderates and independents, we’re never going to be able to do it.”
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