Team USA's hopes of winning the World Baseball Classic took a major setback on Tuesday night as they spotted Italy an eight-run lead that proved insurmountable despite a late spark from the offense. The 8-6 loss moved the United States to the brink of elimination and Mark DeRosa's team no longer controls its own destiny after thinking it had already clinched a spot in the quarterfinals. Instead, they must get one of their preferred results in Wednesday's clash between Italy and Mexico.
Pool B standings
WBC rules dictate that the top two teams in each pool advance to the elimination stages. Italy's upset victory has thrown some chaos into the proceedings. Entering the final round-robin game in Pool B, here is where we stand.
| Team | Record |
|---|---|
| Italy | 3-0 |
| United States | 3-1 |
| Mexico | 2-1 |
| Great Britain | 1-3 |
| Brazil | 0-4 |
United States' path to the quarterfinals
A lot of stress and math can be eliminated from the equation if Italy simply stays hot and beats Mexico. That result would send 4-0 Italy and the 3-1 Americans on to the quarterfinals in Houston. A more complicated, yet entirely plausible situation is for Team USA to win the tiebreaking procedure in an event of a Mexico win that moves all three teams to 3-1.
The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record between tied teams, and all three would be 1-1. Then it would move on to fewest runs allowed divided by outs recorded, followed by fewest earned runs allowed between tied teams. If that still doesn't yield a winner, the next metric is highest batting average posted in games between tied teams.
Understanding the formula
The United States did not do themselves any favors in allowing Italy to post a bunch of crooked numbers on the scoreboard. Had they fallen in a pitcher's duel, things would look a lot rosier. Instead, here are the numbers you need headed into the Italy-Mexico tilt.
| Team | Runs Against | Earned Runs Against | Outs Recorded | Runs/Outs Recorded | Earned Runs/Outs Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 11 | 8 | 54 | 0.204 | 0.148 |
| Mexico | 5 | 5 | 24 | 0. 208 | 0.208 |
| Italy | 6 | 6 | 27 | 0.222 | 0.222 |
So what are Team USA fans rooting for?
An Italy win. It cannot be stressed enough how much easier that makes things. Independent of that, though, they are looking for both Italy and Mexico to put up a lot of runs. If the game goes a regulation nine innings and Italy surrenders more than five runs, Team USA would win that tiebreaker.
Let's a couple hypotheticals to show how it would all work out.
In the first we'll imagine that Mexico wins, 4-3, in nine innings. Mexico and Italy would advance on to the quarterfinals by virtue of having the two lowest numbers in the final column.
| Team | Runs Against | Outs Recorded | Runs/Outs Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 8 | 51 | 0.156 |
| Italy | 9 | 51 | 0.176 |
| United States | 11 | 54 | 0.204 |
Now let's project Mexico to win, 9-2, in a nine inning game. Here, Mexico and the United States would advance—once again, based on that final column.
| Team | Runs Against | Outs Recorded | Runs/Outs Recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 7 | 51 | 0.137 |
| United States | 11 | 54 | 0.204 |
| Italy | 15 | 51 | 0.294 |
What's at stake for the United States?
In 24 hours all of this worrying could end up being for nothing if Team USA keeps on dancing. They clearly have the talent to win the whole tournament. But just to be in this place, where they must rely on someone else, is a massive disappointment. This would represent the first time in six tournaments that the Americans have failed to reach the quarterfinal round.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Here's What Team USA Needs in Italy vs. Mexico Game to Reach WBC Quarterfinals.
