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10. Miami's rank for yards after catch surrendered
If ever there were a game for Brandin Cooks to have a signature game in 2022, this would be it. The Dolphins have given up 1,221 yards after the catch this season, the 10th-most in the NFL. If the Texans are able to back the Dolphins off the line of scrimmage any, or setup effective crossers, Cooks may be able to have a few chunk plays to get his first 100-yard receiving game of the year.
9. Miami and Houston's rank for quarterback pressures
Both the Dolphins and the Texans are tied for the ninth-fewest pressures in the NFL with 75. That means both Tua Tagovailoa and Kyle Allen should have enough time in the pocket to survey their reads. For Tagovailoa, the results are big plays. For the Texans, the results are still an unknown. Is it that the receivers can’t get separation or that the previous signal caller wasn’t firing the missiles?
8. Dameon Pierce's rush attempts per broken tackle
Pierce has shown tremendous ability to turn nothing into something, and the best statistic is his 8.0 attempts per broken tackle, which is the second-highest in the NFL. Essentially every eighth carry Pierce is breaking a tackle. As has been the case with some of his touchdown runs, the broken tackles lead to good things.
7. Dameon Pierce's rank for rushing yards
Never was so much gained by so few for so many — or something like that. The fourth-rounder from Florida has tallied 780 rushing yards, good for the seventh-most in the NFL. The thing with Pierce’s production is the defense knows it is coming as Houston’s passing game has been largely ineffective. Imagine what gains could be there for Pierce if the defense has to respect a modicum of a passing attack.
6. Jaylen Waddle's receiving touchdowns
The attention may be on Tyreek Hill, but Waddle has been the most prolific at getting in the end zone with six receiving touchdowns, tied for the sixth-most in the league. With rookie cornerback Derek Stingley out, it will be hard for Houston to handle Waddle, and he may add to this total.
5. Tua Tagovailoa's rank for touchdown passes
Tagovailoa may have missed two games, but his touchdown passes don’t reflect that. The former Alabama product has thrown 18 on the year. There is no question Tagovailoa will lead the Dolphins’ offense. Houston has to find a way to give him fewer chances or match his production.
4. Games Kyle Allen started in 2020
The former Texas A&M and Houston product hasn’t started a game since he was with Washington in 2020. Allen led Washington to just one win that season, a 25-3 thrashing of the hapless Dallas Cowboys. At least Allen knows what the identity of the offense looks like.
3. Tua Tagovailoa's interceptions
Tagovailoa doesn’t make very many mistakes. With just three interceptions thrown this season, the Texans defense will be hard pressed to get their hands on a few passes. If Tagovailoa is feeling generous, Houston has to secure the potential free possessions.
2. Tyreek Hill's rank for receiving yards
The former Kansas City Chiefs 2016 fifth-round pick has been prolific with 1,148 receiving yards. It wasn’t simply the offense in Kansas City; Hill had plenty to do with his own production. Given that the Texans will be without Derek Stingley as previously mentioned, it will be a true choice between punishments as Jaylen Waddle lines up on the opposite side.
1. Houston's projected overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft
The Texans have logged just one full win this season, but their tie counts as a half-win. Nevertheless they are safe as the nearest teams with worse records — the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears each at 3-8 — would need consecutive weeks of losing and Houston winning to flub the Texans’ draft positioning. They can afford a win against the Dolphins.
