Welcome to the 2023 NFL draft, where everything can change in an instant depending on what the Houston Texans do when on the clock a pick No. 2.
Since Davis Mills connected with Jordan Akins for a touchdown in Week 18, it’s been speculated that the Texans will begin a new chapter at quarterback. Why wouldn’t they? Mills led the league in interceptions a season ago. And with a new coach in DeMeco Ryans — plus a fresh young offensive coordinator in Bobby Slowik — it would make sense for a new signal-caller to enter the building, too.
All that changed when Alabama’s Bryce Young’s betting odds moved up a spot from No. 2 to No. 1. And now Houston seems to be considering all its options once the Carolina Panthers make their pick.
There’s a new-found hope surrounding the Texans after two lackluster seasons. Houston added premier talent in free agency at key positions. There’s a plethora of young prospects ready to make the jump from up-and-comers to household names. And with Ryans returning back to where it all began, the cards are falling in line for a hopeful tomorrow.
But none of it matters without an exceptional draft class. So what will Nick Caserio do in a prove-it three-day period? Here is a look at a bonus seven-round mock entering draft week.
Round 1 (No. 2 overall) — Trade
Caserio, who said he is not afraid to trade within the division, sends Nos. 2 (Round 1) and 188 (Round 6) to the Indianapolis Colts for Nos. 4 (Round 1), 35 (Round 2), 79 (Round 3), 138 (Round 5), and a 2024 second-rounder.
If Houston is serious about passing on Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Caserio must move down the board. Indianapolis, which has been linked to multiple quarterbacks throughout the pre-draft process, knows that the Arizona Cardinals are looking to trade down for a QB-needy team. Chris Ballard swings big to land the Colts’ face of the franchise, while the Texans move down to grab four extra picks and stay in line to land their guy.
Round 1 (No. 4 overall) [via IND] — DE Will Anderson, Alabama
While quarterback is the top need for Houston, defensive end is a close second. The Texans finished dead last defending the run and led the NFL in missed tackles. Both Jerry Hughes and Jonathan Greenard are entering contract years, and Caserio did little to bolster the position in free agency.
Anderson is the top defensive player in the class. With his combination of explosiveness, physicality and brute strength, the two-time Bronko Nagurski Trophy will be a staple off the edge for Ryans’ defense that’s known for pressuring the quarterback. The film speaks for itself. Anderson is too good of a prospect to pass up if Houston truly is out on Stroud.
Round 1 (No. 12 overall) [via CLE] — WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
Even with the additions of Noah Brown and Robert Woods, the Texans need a legitimate No. 1 receiver. Smith-Njigba is a technician in terms of route-running. He has sure-fire hands and can easily make defenders miss in the open field. While Smith-Njigba doesn’t win with speed, his short-area quick and burst coming out of breaks will help him win one-on-one matchups against any type of coverage.
Houston met with Smith-Njigba multiple times through the pre-draft process and needs a more youthful approach to its receiving game. The hope is that JSN and second-year receiver John Metchie III could be the ideal combination for whoever plays quarterback.
Round 1 (No. 28 overall) [via CIN] — QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
The Texans trade Nos. 33 (Round 2), 104 (Round 4) to the Cincinnati Bengals for their No. 28 overall pick (Round 1).
Caserio can’t walk out of the first round without a quarterback, so a phone call at the end of Day 1 gives the Texans their hopeful franchise passer. Hooker isn’t going to wow fans on draft night, but then again, this is a fan base that booed the J.J. Watt selected and dubbed him a bust before he picked three Defensive Player of the Year trophies.
The positives to Hooker’s game are promising. He has pinpoint accuracy that can stretch all three phases of the field. He doesn’t possess a Howitzer of an arm like Anthony Richardson, but he can sling deep. Last season, Hooker led all FBS passers in completions of over 30-plus yards downfield. He’s quick with his decision-making and rarely turns the ball over. Then again, Josh Huepel’s up-tempo offense was predicated on quick decision-making and plenty of pre-snap reads.
Despite coming off a torn ACL, Hooker has said on multiple occasions that he’s ahead of schedule and should be ready for training camp. There are some limitations to his game (and he’ll be 26 by the end of his rookie season), but for the style of offense Slowik wants to run, perhaps Hooker has similar success to Brock Purdy but with more long-term upside.
It’s not the pick most Texans fans want, but it’s the one I think occurs come Thursday night. And yes, this will be the pick that likely decides the fate of Caserio come January.
Round 2 (No. 35 overall) [via IND] — C John Michael Schmitz, Minnesota
Thanks to a trade back with Indy, the Texans are back on the clock at the top of Round 2. The only piece missing on Houston’s revamped offensive line is center. Schmitz is one of the top run blockers in the class coming from Minnesota’s run-heavy offense under P.J. Fleck. He’s powerful holding the line and has exceptional quickness to work upfield to reach the second level of defense. Dameon Pierce is expected to be a focal point of the offense under Slowik, so giving him a lead blocker with a mean streak to open wide lanes makes sense.
Round 2 (No. 57 overall) — CB Cam Smith, South Carolina
The Texans trade Nos. 65 (Round 3), 161 (Round 5), 201 (Round 6) to the New York Giants for Nos. 57 (Round 2) and 243 (Round 7).
Cornerback is an under-the-radar long-term need outside of Derek Stingley. Last season, Caserio traded up into the second to land a No. 2 receiver to pair with Brandin Cooks, so moving up to get a cornerback with Smith’s upside makes sense. The former Gamecock plays with an alpha dog mentality and ferociousness that frustrates receivers to no end. While he might get grabby at times in coverage, he also nabbed six interceptions during his time at South Carolina to go along with 19 pass breakups. He’s a work in progress, but there’s upside for him to become a staple in the pass defense opposite last season’s first-round pick.
Round 3 (No. 73 overall) [via CLE] — LB Daiyan Henley, Washington State
A former Pro Bowl linebacker, Ryans is likely looking for a long-term running mate for former third-round pick Christian Harris. Henley is still learning to play linebacker after transitioning from receiver, but he’s a sideline-to-sideline tackling machine in the open field. He excels when defending the run and offers value on special teams, so there’s a role for him early on the roster in more ways than one.
Round 3 (No. 79 overall) [from WAS via IND] — S Jordan Battle, Alabama
No surprise, another Alabama player heads to Houston. Battle can line up anywhere in the secondary and eventually carve out a significant role. He’s not a thumper in run support, but he is a willing tackler in the open field. Battle also has a knack for finding his way around the ball and can always turn it upfield for an easy six. While in Tuscaloosa, he returned three of his six career interceptions for touchdowns. Jimmie Ward will be the starter in 2023, but Battle should take over as Jalen Pitre’s running mate in the future.
Round 5 (No. 138 overall) [via IND] — DL Keondre Coburn, Texas
One can never have enough defensive line depth. Coburn was a four-year starter for the Longhorns and displayed great pad level when taking on double teams. He’s an interchangeable lineman that can play in a one or two-gap system. Perhaps the Texans view him as a nose tackle that can bull-rush up the middle to eliminate the run on early downs.
Round 6 (No. 203 overall) [via NYG] — WR Bryce Ford-Wheaton, West Virginia
Who said Houston couldn’t draft another receiver? Ford-Wheaton put on a clinic at the combine with his impressive 4.38 40-time and 41-inch vertical. Mix that with his 6-4 frame and there’s potential for him to be a late-round steal. While he’s not an elite route-runner, Ford-Wheaton is at his best when making plays on 50-50 balls on the outside. He’s a project, but his measurables are just too tempting to pass up.
Round 7 (No. 230 overall) [from NYJ via TB] — RB Chris Rodriguez, Kentucky
Rodriguez is a bruising-type runner that offers value on third down. He averaged 6.2 yards per carry last season for the Wildcats, often making it a nightmare for defensive backs to tackle him in the open field. Anyone who tries to arm tackle Rodriguez is in for a rude awakening, and he should be a factor near the goal line.
Round 7 (No. 259 overall) — OL Mark Evans, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
You can never have enough depth in the trenches. Evans was a five-year starter for the Golden Lions and played both offensive tackle and guard. His violent hands allow him to win in the run game, and his footwork is exceptional overall. He’s a guard with developmental upside to close out Houston’s draft class.
