DALLAS — Texans who favor the U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade support banning abortion after six weeks of pregnancy — consistent with the state’s new Senate Bill 8 restrictions — rather than 15 weeks, according to a Dallas Morning News-University of Texas at Tyler poll released Sunday.
The 15-week mark is used in the Mississippi ban now before the Supreme Court that many believe could be used to overturn Roe and the abortion rights it preserves.
The poll found that 47% of respondents want the court to overturn the 1973 decision and allow states to decide abortion policy; 50% do not want it overturned, and 3% said they don’t know. Of those who want it overturned, 43% of respondents favor a ban after six weeks while 27% favor 15 weeks or after, and 30% said they were unsure.
Pollster Mark Owens, who teaches political science at UT-Tyler, said Texans mostly know about the Texas law named the “heartbeat bill” by Republicans. And it’s clear that among those who want it overturned, “that is their preference,” he said.
In general, Owens said of respondents who favor overturning Roe, “I think there is a preference for the state to stop abortions as soon as possible.”
More women — 41% — favor a ban that begins after six weeks than the 25% who said they favor it after 15 weeks. Another 34% indicated they were unsure.
Texas enacted Senate Bill 8, which bans abortion after six weeks, on Sept. 1, and it’s withstood court challenges so far. A month after the law was enacted, abortions in the state dropped by 60%.
The polling indicates that significant numbers of Texans favor restrictions. But even among those who agree Roe should be overturned, there are divisions over details.
“You see Americans are conflicted still on how permissive abortion law should be here. But when you ask people specific questions, they make distinctions between times of pregnancy and reasons. And the vast majority of Americans would be kinda where most of Europe is, which is, you know, 12 weeks maximum,” Mary FioRito, an attorney and fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, said.
Grace Howard, a professor of Justice Studies at San Jose State University, said it’s notable the poll found “the majority of registered Texas voters do not want Roe overturned, particularly Latinos and women, while the white evangelical vote strongly favors banning it, and banning it at six weeks LMP (or two weeks after a missed period).”
Looking ahead, if Roe is overturned, abortion would be banned under a so-called “trigger bill” signed by Gov. Greg Abbott in June. Doctors in the state who perform abortions after that would be subject to life in prison and at least $100,000 in fines.
Enactment of that bill hangs in the balance pending the Supreme Court ruling on Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health, the Mississippi case which directly challenges the 49-year-old landmark ruling.
Methodology
The Dallas Morning News/UT-Tyler Poll is a statewide random sample of 1,118 registered voters conducted between February 8-15. The mixed-mode sample includes 276 registered voters surveyed over the phone by the University of Texas at Tyler with support from ReconMR and 912 registered voters randomly selected from Dynata’s panel of online respondents. The margin of error for a sample of 1,118 registered voters in Texas is +/- 2.8 percentage points, and the more conservative margin of sampling error that includes design effects from this poll is +/- 3.1 percentage points for a 95% confidence interval. The online and phone surveys were conducted in English and Spanish. Using information from the 2020 Current Population Survey and office of the Texas Secretary of State. The sample’s gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, metropolitan density and vote choice were matched to the population of registered voters in Texas.
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