With signs that the Tory poll ratings are taking another hit after Boris Johnson’s resignation and the growing mortgage costs crisis, Rishi Sunak now faces a series of byelections he could do without. They also hand Labour the chance to prove it is mounting a serious challenge.
Selby and Ainsty
Held by: Conservatives
Majority: 20,137
The resignation of Nigel Adams, an ultra-loyal Boris Johnson ally, means a new MP for the North Yorkshire seat. It would be a very safe constituency in normal times, but with the Tories sinking in the polls, there will be nervousness in CCHQ. Labour see the seat as an outside bet, though a split progressive vote with the Lib Dems may help the Tories hold on.
Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Held by: Conservatives
Majority: 7,210
Boris Johnson’s shock resignation, announced before he faced being forced out after his suspension from the Commons over his Partygate claims, means his seat has become a major target for Labour, which is going all out to seize the constituency. Anything other than a Labour win would be a big surprise, as the seat had already become a marginal.
Somerton and Frome
Held by: Conservatives
Majority: 19,213
Despite the big Tory majority, the Somerset seat has all the hallmarks of a Lib Dem byelection triumph similar to those it achieved during Johnson’s premiership. However, the party will have to overcome a disastrous interview by its candidate Sarah Dykes, who appeared to have a crisis of confidence when asked a basic question about the constituency’s characteristics.
Mid Bedfordshire
Held by: Conservatives
Majority: 24,664
One of the safest Tory seats has become an unlikely target for the Lib Dems, though Labour also states it will fight hard here. There’s only one issue: Nadine Dorries, another Johnson ally, has announced she is resigning but has yet to actually trigger the formal process. It means there is no date for the byelection - or even final confirmation it will happen.
Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Held by: SNP
Majority: 5,230
While a byelection has not yet been formally called, it is extremely likely after current MP Margaret Ferrier was suspended from the Commons over a breach of Covid rules. A recall petition is currently being carried out, which is likely to trigger a search for a new MP. It presents Labour with a perfect chance to show it is making progress in Scotland.
