One of the most challenging EV-centric problems to solve is the battery. And what a problem to solve—after all, the big hunk of electrons is what powers the motors to make the wheels go 'round. It's more than just hooking up some cells together, though. The battery has to pack enough juice to make long trips for the vehicle to entice consumers, and it has to be reliable enough to withstand hundreds of thousands of miles (and repeated discharges and abuse from pedal-to-the-metal driving).
Welcome back to Critical Materials, your daily roundup for all things EV and automotive tech. Today, we're chatting about Tesla putting a clock on solving 4680 battery cell problems, Volvo's tariffs woes, and U.S. charger rollouts reaching a tipping point. Let's jump in.
30%: Elon Musk Sets Deadline On Solving 4680 Cell Problems: Report
Tesla's revolutionary 4680 battery hasn't exactly been the silver bullet that the automaker intended. The cell—named after its 46-millimeter diameter and 80-mm length—was set to be a breakthrough in manufacturing, unlocking huge potential cost savings in production and packing a wallop in terms of energy density. The biggest challenge has been reliably manufacturing them at scale.
A new report from The Information outlines the challenges that Tesla has been working to solve. According to sources familiar with the matter, CEO Elon Musk is tired of waiting and has put the team on notice: solve the 4680 problem by the end of the year, or else.
From The Information:
In May, Musk told the team working on the 4680—the nickname for the cylindrical battery, which is 46 millimeters in diameter and 80 millimeters tall—to cut its cost and scale up one of its key innovations by the end of the year, according to three people with knowledge of the matter.
And in recent months, Musk has told them he wants to see a solution to a thorny technical problem that can cause the batteries to collapse on themselves while in use, one of those people said.
The report goes on to note that if the team doesn't solve scaling issues by the end of the year, Musk could give the order to abandon plans to scale the project.
That threat isn't something to take lightly. Tesla has spent a considerable sum to build out the project thus far, including acquiring Maxwell Technologies in 2019 for its revolutionary "dry coating" process that is said to give the 4680 its numerous advantages—namely cost—over other battery tech.
Tesla may be onto something, though. As reported by the Chinese publication LatePost, the team is close to meeting Musk's challenge.
As told by LatePost:
Tesla plans to mass-produce and install 4680 batteries that completely use dry electrodes before the end of the year. This will be the "complete" version of the 4680 battery.
[...]
Now, Tesla is only one step away from the "complete" 4680 battery. We learned that the design of the dry-process positive electrode 4680 battery has been finalized recently, which is the first step before large-scale mass production. Tesla's battery department will then make every effort to improve production yield and efficiency and expand production capacity.
Tesla is putting its engineers under serious pressure to get this done, especially after 18-year Tesla veteran Drew Baglino (the VP of Powertrain and Energy) left the company in April.
Despite being in the works for four years, the company is only producing enough cells for around 1,000 Cybertrucks every week—seemingly significantly less than the company originally anticipated scaling to. Should the automaker solve its scaling problem, it will step closer to driving down battery costs even further and perhaps even bring its fabled $25,000 EV back into the spotlight.
60%: Volvo Projecting Huge Sales Headache Over Chinese EV Tariffs
Volvo had a pretty decent second quarter this year, beating out analyst expectations by quite a bit, even if EVs weren't the star of the show. But despite the good news, Volvo has colored in what it believes its EV future looks like this year and the projects are...well, not very vivid.
The automaker has lowered its retail sales forecast expectations for the year, citing its less than ideal position between the global powers currently aiming EV-focused tariffs square at China. Now, the automaker expects EV sales to make up as low as 12% of its sales, as opposed to the original projection of 15%.
"We wanted to put a floor on that for the markets to say we are still going to grow but there are some headwinds," said Volvo CEO Jim Rowan in an interview with Reuters. "It's really driven by tariffs."
Volvo, which is owned by Chinese automaker Geely, has focused its sourcing and production efforts in China. This has put it in the unfortunate scenario of being affected by tariffs in both the United States and Europe, which could make vehicles like the EX30 cost-prohibitive.
Currently, the EX30 is one of Europe's top-selling EVs. The only two electric cars that are out-selling the SUV are the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y, which is a pretty big accomplishment to
However, with tariffs of up to 37.6% currently being proposed by the EU, of which the EX30 will be subject to 19.9%, trade barriers are set to pose a bit of a hurdle. As for the U.S. market, Volvo has chosen to postpone shipments to the States altogether after a 100% duty is set to be levied on Chinese EV imports.
These tariffs will force Volvo to either raise the price of the small SUV, eat the cost of the tariffs, or seek alternative production means to maintain course. The automaker has chosen to shift production of some models to Belgium in the first half of 2025 to help offset the cost of the tariffs. Meanwhile, its flagship EX90 has begun production Stateside in South Carolina.
90%: EV Chargers To Outpace Gas Stations In U.S. Within A Decade
Have you ever wondered just how many gas stations there are in the U.S.? According to xMap, the answer is nearly 197,000 locations. There are plenty of places to fill up your car on the go, which is kind of a necessity since most people don't have a gas pump in their driveway.
Meanwhile, many people do have the means to plug in their EVs at home. Sure, there are exceptions, which is one of the many reasons that EVs need public charging spots, just like gas stations. The lack of public chargers has been one of the largest barriers to mass EV adoption. It's also one that is rapidly being nullified thanks to large deployments of chargers—as much as 9% in just three months, according to Bloomberg.
That exponential growth means that EV chargers are set to outpace the number of gas stations in the U.S. in less than eight years.
From Bloomberg:
At the current pace, public fast-charging sites will outnumber gas stations in the US in about eight years — but charger momentum is only expected to accelerate. North American operators will spend a collective $6.1 billion on charging infrastructure this year, nearly double their 2023 investment, according to BloombergNEF estimates. That annual spend is expected to double again by 2030.
Currently, the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center lists 177,208 EV chargers deployed across 64,970 stations in the U.S. Only 43,857 of these chargers are DC Fast Chargers, however, and are located at 10,493 sites. And of those chargers, 26,095 belong to the 2,310 Tesla Supercharging locations across the nation.
Even gas stations hopping on the train. Shell, Pilot, and Flying J have all opened charging station locations in the second quarter of 2024, showing a major interest in staying relevant to the needs of consumers.
It's not just about DC Fast Chargers, though. Level 2 chargers are just as important, and retailers see them as a huge opportunity to attract EV owners who plug in while they shop. Hotels, restaurants, parking garages, and other venues have also bought into the vision, using chargers as an enticing reason for visitors to visit their facility or even as an additional revenue-generating model.
"We’re getting past a turning point where fueling stations and convenience stores are really seeing the value proposition. It’s a very welcome turn from how they were behaving in the regulatory space even as recently as a couple of years ago," said Sam Houston, Union of Concerned Scientists' senior vehicles analyst, in an interview with Bloomberg. He later continued: "You have a few anecdotes that suggest a lack of charging, and that gets conflated with charging overall. It’s important to make sure people are aware of how quickly these stations are coming online."
100%: How Often Do You Use Public Charging?
I'm a big numbers guy. I like to keep track of useless stats just to go back and ooh-and-aah over them later. Today's exhibit is about my charging habits. Over the last year, I've consumed 4,679 kilowatt-hours of electricity while charging my Tesla Model 3. Of that charging, 86% was done at home, 12% was done by DC Fast Charging, and 2% was done at destination charging.
Destination charging has been much more difficult to find than DCFC, and I often rely on apps like PlugShare to help me find a location before setting out on a trip where I will be parked for an extended period of time. That's kind of surprising to me, considering that there are a significantly larger number of Level 2 chargers in the U.S. than there are Level 3 chargers. I'm also surprised by just how much I charge at home.
That being said, how often do you use public charging? Is it an everyday thing for you, or just on the occasional road trip? Let me know in the comments—I'm interested in seeing your statistics, too!
