Tesla has a big October, with both its robotaxi reveal and third-quarter earnings on the calendar. However, the EV giant's first hurdle will be when it reports global Q3 vehicle deliveries this week, with analysts projecting the third-best total ever. TSLA shares angled lower Tuesday.
If it sticks to its previous third-quarter delivery report schedule, Tesla should announce the data before the market opens on Wednesday, Oct. 2.
Analyst consensus has Tesla global Q3 deliveries totaling 462,000 units, up 6% vs. Q3 2023, according to FactSet. This total would represent the third-best quarterly delivery total ever for Tesla, behind Q2 2023's 466,140 and Q4 2023's record-setting 484,507 deliveries. Analysts project Tesla matching its record total in the fourth quarter, meaning unit sales would be flat compared to a year ago.
Vehicle deliveries in the second quarter topped analyst expectations but arguably the bigger story was the quarterly performance of Tesla's energy business.
Tesla stock fell 1.4% to 258.02 during market action on Tuesday after adding 0.4% to 261.63 on Monday. TSLA stock has been climbing further above its 50-day moving average to within around 5% of its July high.
That July high is also an official buy point.
Tesla Deliveries Could hit 470,000
It is common for delivery estimates to change in the days prior to the announcement.
Troy Teslike, whose delivery estimates and Tesla data tracking are highly respected among retail Tesla investors, released his third-quarter delivery estimates late Monday.
Teslike projects 472,000 total deliveries, well above analyst consensus, with 25,477 deliveries of Model S/X/Cybertruck units and 446,523 Model 3/Model Y deliveries.
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a longtime Tesla bull, wrote Friday he expects Q3 deliveries will come in above the consensus view, with whisper numbers around the 465,000- 470,000 vehicles.
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"We believe 3Q will provide a solid rebound looking to 2H for the company as China continues to heat up and price/demand stabilization has continuously been seen throughout the quarter. We believe this quarter is a major step in the right direction for the Tesla story," Ives wrote.
Looking ahead, Ives remains confident Tesla will hit 1.8 million deliveries for 2024.
Last week, Barclays wrote that it expects Q3 deliveries totaling 470,000 vehicles. The firm said that Q3 volume strength will be driven almost entirely by China while Europe has been a weak spot for Tesla.
Conservative Projections
On Thursday, Deutsche Bank wrote that it expects Tesla Q3 deliveries to at the minimum meet analyst consensus estimates of 460,000-465,000 units. Europe and U.S. appear to be trending lower in year-over-year terms while China is outperforming, helped by financing promotion and trade-in incentives, the firm wrote.
RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan last week increased his Tesla Q3 delivery view to 460,000, up from his previous 455,000 estimate. RBC Capital has an outperform rating and a 224 price target on Tesla stock.
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Meanwhile, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter a week ago raised the firm's price target on Tesla to 310, from 300, while increasing the Q3 delivery estimate to 459,000 units and 1.75 million vehicles in 2024.
Guggenheim Securities analyst Ron Jewsikow on Sept. 20 forecast third-quarter deliveries of 456,000, slightly below the consensus view but well above the analyst's previous estimate of 435,000.
GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson last Wednesday projected that Tesla's Q3 deliveries will come in at 456,600, up from its previous forecast of 449,000. Johnson added that the buy-side "whisper" estimate is for Q3 deliveries to come in above 470,000.
Tesla Stock Performance
TSLA shares jumped 9.3% to 260.46 last week, climbing back towards an official 271 buy point from a cup base, according to MarketSurge. Earlier in September, Tesla stock cleared an aggressive entry of 235.
On Sept. 5, shares popped above their 50-day moving average, buoyed by robust China sales and the EV giant's full self-driving rollout plans.
TSLA shares jumped more than 22% in September after declining 7.7% in August. Tesla stock has battled back in 2024 and is now up 4% on the year, after rebounding about 90% from a late-April low.
Tesla has a busy October ahead. The EV giant has third-quarter deliveries this week, followed up with the robotaxi event on Oct. 10 and then Q3 earnings.
Tesla stock ranks second in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 75 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have an 84 Relative Strength Rating and a 57 EPS Rating.
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