Tesla vehicle insurance registrations last week in China tumbled, as many major China EV makers saw a lag in business during the holiday week. However the company is still on-track toward its best-ever quarterly deliveries total in the world's largest EV market. Global vehicle delivery data is on tap for next week. TSLA shares angled higher Tuesday.
Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled 13,800 for the week of Sept. 16-22, falling around 11.5% from 15,600 the previous week, according to data reported by CnEVPost Tuesday. With just one week left in the third quarter, Tesla registrations in China, a rough gauge for deliveries, are up 20% compared to last quarter and have increased more than 18% vs. a year ago.
Tesla's China vehicle registrations in Q3 are now about 1% above its previous best quarterly performance in China, during Q4 2023.
Tesla's year-to-date China registrations have also turned positive in recent weeks. So far in 2024, Tesla registrations in China are up 2% compared to the same time frame in 2023.
Tesla stock gained 1.8% to 254.38 during market action on Tuesday — climbing further above its 50-day moving average to within around 6% of its July high.
Tesla Q3 Vehicle Deliveries; Strong China
The global EV giant's third-quarter deliveries report is expected next week.
Analyst consensus has Tesla global Q3 deliveries totaling 461,000 units, up 6% vs. Q3 2023, according to FactSet. This total would represent the third best quarterly delivery total ever for Tesla, behind Q2 2023's 466,000 and Q4 2023's record-setting 485,000 deliveries. Analysts project Tesla matching its record total in the fourth quarter, meaning unit sales would be flat compared to a year ago.
On Monday, Barclays wrote that it expects Q3 deliveries totaling 470,000 vehicles, which is well above the consensus estimate. The firm said that Q3 volume strength will be driven almost entirely by China while Europe has been a weak spot for Tesla.
Tesla China is benefiting from continued five-year, zero-interest loans to buyers, as well as increased government subsidies for EVs. These are currently running through the end of September. However, Tesla vehicle deliveries in Europe are down more than 16% so far this year, according to Troy Teslike, whose delivery estimates and Tesla data tracking are highly respected among retail Tesla investors.
Teslike has also posted to X in recent weeks that "Tesla is balancing out weaker U.S. sales with stronger sales in China."
Meanwhile, Guggenheim Securities analyst Ron Jewsikow on Sept. 20 forecast third-quarter deliveries of 456,000, slightly below the consensus view but well above the analyst's previous estimate of 435,000.
Tesla Stock Performance
TSLA shares rose 3.5% to 238.25 last week, clearing an aggressive entry of 235. TSLA stock has an official 271 buy point from a cup base, according to MarketSurge.
On Sept. 5, shares popped above their 50-day moving average, buoyed by robust China sales and the EV giant's full self-driving rollout plans.
TSLA shares are up more than 16% in September after declining 7.7% in August. Tesla stock has battled back in 2024 and is now slightly up on the year, after rebounding more than 80% from a late-April low.
Tesla has a busy October ahead, with third-quarter deliveries, the robotaxi event on Oct. 10, and Q3 earnings on Oct. 16.
Tesla stock ranks third in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 69 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have an 86 Relative Strength Rating and a 57 EPS Rating.
Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.
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