Tesla global first quarter deliveries plummeted to the lowest level in nearly two years as quarterly production greatly outpaced unit sales, the EV giant reported Tuesday. TSLA shares fell Tuesday.
Tesla announced early Tuesday that it delivered 386,810 in Q1 while it produced 433,371 vehicles. The company delivered a combined 369,783 Model 3 and Model Y units along with 17,027 "other" vehicles.
Wall Street consensus expected Q1 deliveries of 457,000 units, according to FactSet. That number started last week at 471,000 and steadily dropped ahead of Tesla's global deliveries announcement. The 457,000 figure likely included several analyst forecasts that haven't been updated in weeks or months.
Actual predictions appeared to be more around Tesla's 422,875 number from Q1 2023. The global EV giant hit a record 484,507 deliveries in Q4 2023. The previous quarterly delivery record was in Q2 with 466,140. Troy Teslike, a respected source of delivery estimates and Tesla data tracking among retail Tesla investors, final Q1 estimate is for 409,000 deliveries. Teslike predicts Tesla produced 429,954 vehicles in Q1.
However, Tesla's deliveries of 386,810 in Q1 undercut even the lowest estimates and marks the lowest quarterly deliveries since 344,000 in Q2 2022.
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a longtime Tesla bull, on Tuesday called the quarter an "unmitigated disaster" for Tesla "that is hard to explain away." The analyst said he remains bullish on Tesla over the long term.
"We view this as a seminal moment in the Tesla story for Musk to either turn this around and reverse the black eye 1Q performance," Ives wrote Tuesday. "Otherwise, some darker days could clearly be ahead that could disrupt the long-term Tesla narrative."
Tesla China Rivals Nio, Li Auto, XPeng Rise On March Deliveries
Tesla stock sank 4.7% to 166.91 during market action Tuesday. On Monday, TSLA shares edged down 0.3% to 175.22. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood and her ARK Invest funds loaded up on Tesla stock Monday, purchasing 84,164 shares, according to the company's daily trade disclosure.
Full-Year EPS Predictions But Q2 Looking Up?
With Q1 done, analyst consensus now has 2024 Tesla earnings firmly below 2023's level. That signals another year of earnings declines for this growth stock. Wall Street currently expects Tesla earnings per share of just $2.87 in 2024, according to FactSet. That would be an 8% decline vs. last year's $3.12.
Wall Street's 2024 EPS consensus estimates for Tesla have now come down nearly 25% since the end of 2023. Some analysts believe earnings could drop even further, potentially around 2021 EPS of $2.26.
However, with first quarter deliveries out of the way, Tesla business is expected to pick up in the second quarter with increased Model 3 and Cybertruck sales.
Wall Street currently forecasts Q2 deliveries of 510,000 units, according to FactSet. Troy Teslike's estimates have second-quarter deliveries totaling 460,000, which would be slightly below Q2 2023 Teslike does have Cybertruck deliveries doubling from slightly more than 4,000 in Q1 to 8,160 in Q2 in the U.S. Teslike also has Model 3 sales in the U.S. growing 70% in the second quarter compared to Q1, as production improves.
Meanwhile, Tesla increased its U.S. prices for all Model Y trims on April 1. Tesla raised prices on Europe Model Y vehicles on March 22. In China, Tesla hiked prices on its entire Model Y line by around $690 on April.
To maintain sales momentum in 2023 in 2024, Tesla has aggressively cut vehicle prices and offered discounts. As a result, auto gross margins, which peaked at 30% in Q4 2021 amid industry chip shortages, have plunged well below 20%.
Tesla continues to have large discounts on inventory Model Y vehicles in the U.S. and other markets.
Tesla Stock Has Plunged In 2024, But At Least It's Cheaper, Right? Nope
Tesla Stock Performance
Last week, Tesla stock advanced 2.9% to 175.79, booking a second consecutive weekly gain as the EV company started rolling out its latest Full Self-Driving (FSD) update to customers. TSLA shares are trading modestly below the 50-day moving average.
Emails from Chief Executive Elon Musk leaked on social media platforms showing he is making it mandatory in North America to install and activate the latest version of FSD on vehicles and take customers on a "short test ride before handing over the car."
Tesla is also offering a one-month free trial of FSD in the U.S. for new purchases or existing EVs that are FSD capable.
On March 15, Tesla stock dropped 6.7% to 163.57, hitting new 2024 lows and levels not seen since May 2023. TSLA fell around 13% in March and is the biggest loser on the S&P 500 index so far in 2024.
The EV giant ranks eighth in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 32 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Tesla stock also has a 10 Relative Strength Rating and a 67 EPS Rating.
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