The Tesla Cybertruck hype train continues to barrel down the tracks, and an increasing number of individuals want to bet on its potential success story. A new prediction by an analyst puts Cybertruck's production capacity at a quarter of a million units by mid-decade.
The forecast, shared by TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo via Medium, puts shipment figures between 100-200 units by the end of 2023, 100,000-120,000 units in 2024, and 240,000-260,000 units by 2025.
Several publications consider Kuo to be a reliable forecaster of Apple’s plans, but we’ll have to wait for a few months before we can take his Tesla predictions seriously. It's unclear what metrics he used or which industry sources he relied on to come up with these figures, which slot into the lower end of Tesla’s own forecast.
At an annual shareholder meeting early this year, CEO Elon Musk said the brand could produce anywhere between 250,000 to 500,000 Cybertrucks annually. However, in its communications to its suppliers, Tesla revealed a goal of 375,000 annual units.
Kuo also stated that the Cybertruck could maintain a competitive advantage till the end of the decade, and then a successor, “Cybertruck 2” might follow. Over the course of this timeline, the truck would receive multiple upgrades, but it would remain fundamentally unchanged, according to the analyst.
The Austin-headquartered brand has missed several Cybertruck production timelines over the past few years, including the initial release date of late 2021. The most recent revised timeline is the end of 2023 for the beginning of low-volume production, followed by mass production by early 2024.
The delay can partly be attributed to the truck’s unconventional exterior. A Wired report from early this year stated that the Cybertruck's unique design, which includes an “impenetrable” stainless steel exoskeleton, presented several engineering challenges.
Even the release candidates appeared to have fit and finish issues. “Due to the nature of the Cybertruck, made of bright metal with mostly straight edges, any dimensional variation shows up like a sore thumb,” Musk said to his engineers, as per a leaked email from August 2023.
He insisted his engineers achieve single-digital micron accuracy. A micron is a millionth of a meter, and an average human hair’s width is 70 microns. One can imagine the pressure Musk put on his engineers.
Either way, with two million reservations for the electric truck, and an estimated five-year waiting period for new orders, Tesla will have to roll up its sleeves and deliver on its promises in the coming months and years. Without that, the hype train is unlikely to settle down.
