Tesla vehicle insurance registrations in China last week fell nearly 6%, compared with the same period in 2023, suggesting the EV giant could be headed for a first-quarter delivery miss. TSLA shares angled lower Tuesday.
Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled 12,500 last week, up 16% from the prior week, but down 6% compared to a year ago, according to data reported by CnEVPost. Through the first nine-weeks of 2024, Tesla China insurance registrations totaled 77,200, up around 8% vs. the same time frame in 2023.
Meanwhile, Wall Street is currently expecting 489,000 deliveries in Q1, according to FactSet. Tesla is expected to report first-quarter deliveries in early April.
Troy Teslike, whose delivery estimates and Tesla data tracking are highly respected among retail Tesla investors, posted on X Monday that "Q1 is not going well in terms of Tesla deliveries."
Last week, Troy Teslike said that over the last three years Tesla sales in Q1 have been higher than the preceding Q4.
"That's not going to happen in this quarter," the account posted.
Tesla hit a record 484,507 deliveries in Q4 2023. The previous quarterly delivery record was in Q2 with 466,140. Troy Teslike projects the Q1 2024 delivery number will be below Q2's 466,140.
Tesla Stock: Chinese New Year Takes Its Toll
Tesla ended 2023 on a high in China. However, the country's EV dynamic could quickly change. Chief Executive Elon Musk has said China's EV companies are Tesla's main competition — with BYD, Nio, Li Auto, Nio and others all making inroads in the EV market.
Tesla China delivered 60,365 in February, down around 19% compared with last year, according to according to data released Monday by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). That number includes exports. However, the Chinese New Year holiday ran for two weeks in February, from Feb. 10-Feb. 24.
Tesla deliveries of China-made vehicles in January and February totaled 131,812, down 6% compared with 2023.
In 2023, the Chinese New Year holiday, from Jan. 21-27, significantly affected car companies' sales across the board in China. Tesla Shanghai was among those shut down in observance of an extended Lunar New Year holiday.
Meanwhile, Tesla reportedly plans to revamp the Model Y in China with mass production beginning as early as mid-2024, according to a Bloomberg report in late 2023.
Tesla Stock Performance
TSLA shares fell 3.9% to 180.80 Tuesday during market action. On Monday, Tesla stock sank more than 7% to 188.14.
Gary Black, managing partner of the Future Fund, posted on X late Monday that Tesla stock's 7% decline comes as investors worry Q1 deliveries will be below Wall Street expectations.
"This could lead to another round of TSLA FY24 earnings reductions," Black said.
With 2023 in the rearview mirror, analyst consensus now has 2024 Tesla earnings below 2023's level, signaling another year of negative growth for this growth stock.
Wall Street expects Tesla earnings per share of just $3.07 a share in 2024, according to FactSet. That would be a little less than a 2% decline vs. last year's $3.12.
So far in 2024, Tesla stock has retreated around 28%, falling below key levels of support. Tesla stock ranks eighth in the 35 member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group.
The stock has a 42 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Tesla stock also has a 16 Relative Strength Rating and a 68 EPS Rating.
Please follow Kit Norton on X, formerly known as Twitter, @KitNorton for more coverage.
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