It is the first month of 2023, and our monthly survey of food prices has found that the shopping bill went up in all of the main supermarkets between December and January. At one supermarket the price increase for the same seven items was more than £1.
Grocery price inflation is the driving factor behind the increase. A recent survey from the British Retail Consortium showed overall food inflation averaged 13.3% in December. The latest figures from consumer group Which? that were published in January showed that Aldi was the cheapest supermarket in 2022.
I have been buying the same shopping basket of items at seven different supermarkets for the past 10 months to examine how prices have been changing, and this month the items were cheapest in Tesco with a clubcard. Lidl was second and Asda third.
The shopping list includes seven items: milk, bread, eggs, cheese, spaghetti, apples and breakfast cereal. They are not necessarily the cheapest items on sale, but the most comparable so we can track how different products are increasing in price as the cost of living continues to grow. The exact items are:
- two pints of semi-skimmed milk (whatever brand the store has to offer as there is usually only one)
- a box of 6 free range eggs (the cheapest they have on offer at the time as there is no uniform brand)
- pack of mature cheddar cheese (Cathedral City at the places were it is sold and comparable at the others)
- 500g of spaghetti (the cheapest brand the store has to offer as there is no uniform brand across the shops)
- one loaf of thick-cut white sliced bread (Brace's bread at every store apart from Marks and Spencer where they only sell their own brand)
- six Braeburn apples (the stores normally only have one brand of the apples)
- a pack of breakfast wheat cereal (Weetabix or own brand at Aldi and M&S)
The shopping basket at each supermarket rose between December and January, with an increase of £1.06 at Sainsbury's. All the bills are also more than £10 for the first time since we started our own survey in March last year. Ten months ago the same basket at Aldi was £8.46 and £8.94 in Asda.
The shopping bill for January
Here is how the different shops compared for our specific basket of shopping, listed from cheapest to most expensive. Beneath this list, you can read in detail how we went about compiling the shopping list. Particularly important to note is that some of these shops were visited in person (because of the lack of an online shopping delivery service) while prices for others were checked online. The Tesco clubcard also had an impact on prices.
1. Tesco
Six free range eggs - £1.55 (don from £1.75)
Mature cheddar - £2.70 clubcard price (down from £2.75)
Two pints of semi-skimmed - £1.30 (up from £1.25)
500g of spaghetti - 28p (same price)
One loaf of white sliced bread -£1.35 (up from £1.25)
Six Braeburn apples - £1.60 (up from 79p with clubcard)
Breakfast cereal - £2 (same price)
TOTAL: £10.78 with club card (up from £10.07)
2. Lidl
Six free range eggs - £1.30 (up from £1.19)
Mature cheddar - £3.49 (up from £2.69)
Two pints of semi-skimmed - £1.30 (same price)
500g of spaghetti - 28p (same price)
One loaf of white sliced bread - £1.25 (up from £1.19)
Six Braeburn apples - £1.29 (same price)
Breakfast cereal - £1.99 (same price)
TOTAL: £10.79 (up from £9.93)
3. Asda
Six free range eggs - £1.30 (down from £1.75)
Mature cheddar - £2.90 (down from £3)
Two pints of semi-skimmed - £1.30 (same price)
500g of spaghetti - 28p Just Essentials (same price)
One loaf of white sliced bread - £1.35 (up from £1.20)
Six Braeburn apples - £1.50 (up from 99p)
Breakfast cereal - £1.95 (same price)
TOTAL: £11.03 (up from £10.47)
4. Aldi
Six free range eggs - £1.55 (up from £1.19) *this is based on the only eggs Aldi had available on Friday, January 20 in their Llanishen, Cardiff branch. If Aldi's £1.19 eggs were available, Aldi would rank as the cheapest supermarket in this list
Mature cheddar - £2.69 (same price) *this is for a 400g block of cheese, while the weight at all the other supermarkets was 350g. This means this cheese is cheaper on a per 100g basis.
Two pints of semi-skimmed - £1.30 (same price)
500g of spaghetti - 79p (same price)
One loaf of white sliced bread - £1.25 (same price)
Six Braeburn apples - £1.49 (up from £1.29)
Breakfast cereal - £1.99 (same price)
TOTAL: £11.06 (up from £10.50)
5. Marks & Spencer
Six free range eggs - £2.30 (same price)
Mature cheddar - £2.90 (same price)
Two pints of semi-skimmed - £1.30 (same price)
500g of spaghetti - 95p (same price)
One loaf of white sliced bread -85p (same price)
Six Braeburn apples - £1.90 (up from £1.75)
Breakfast cereal - £1.85 (up from £1.50)
TOTAL: £12.05 (up from £11.55)
6. Sainsbury's
Six free range eggs - £1.30 (same price)
Mature cheddar - £4.20 (up from £2.75)
Two pints of semi-skimmed - £1.30 (same price)
500g of spaghetti - 56p (down from 95p)
One loaf of white sliced bread - £1.30 (same price)
Six Braeburn apples - £1.70 (same price)
Breakfast cereal - £2 (same price)
TOTAL: £12.36 (up from £11.30)
7. Morrisons
Six free range eggs - £1.29 (up from £1.25)
Mature cheddar - £3.99 (up from £3.25)
Two pints of semi-skimmed - £1.30 (up from £1.30)
550g of spaghetti - 95p (up from 89p)
One loaf of white sliced bread - £1.49 (up from £1.40)
Six Braeburn apples - £1.59 (down from £1.89)
Breakfast cereal - £1.99 (up from £1.70)
TOTAL: £12.60 (up from £11.63)
How we did the shop and things to bear in mind
For our basket, Tesco was the cheapest for the first time (£10.78 if you use a clubcard which includes a cheap cheese deal), coming in 1p cheaper than Lidl and 25p cheaper than Asda. Aldi was fourth cheapest at £11.06. It's important to note that this does not mean there are not cheaper products available.
The price of the only eggs we were able to buy at Aldi due to in-store availability was £1.55. This was more than the £1.19 we paid for eggs there in December. The supermarket's website shows there are still eggs for sale at £1.19 but these were not at the store we visited (Llanishen in Cardiff on January 20). Had these eggs been available, Aldi would have come in as the cheapest supermarket for our basket. At most of the supermarkets there was a lack of eggs with the majority having restrictions on how many packs you can buy. Supermarkets are running out of eggs again.
Spaghetti seems to have remained around the same price but there were some shortages in the shops that we visited.
We visited M&S, Lidl and Aldi in person to check prices, because you can't do an online shop there. But for Morrisons, Sainbury's, Asda and Tesco, we used online prices as they all offer an online shopping and delivery service. Of course, this means that some items we priced online might not have been available when it came to delivery. However, supermarkets who cannot provide online buyers' first choice usually price match even if the substituted product is more expensive.
Aldi is the cheapest supermarket overall, according to Which? analysis
The Which? figures for 2022 are based on their monthly comparison and found that Aldi was the cheapest supermarket in their analysis for seven out of 12 months in 2022, more than any other supermarket. Lidl wasn't far behind, coming out cheapest in the first five months of the year. Across the seven months that Aldi was awarded 'cheapest supermarket of the month', the average difference was £1.59 compared to Lidl.
They also found that the price of budget items rose 20.3% on average in December, compared with the same month a year before, according to research from the consumer group Which?, while supermarkets’ luxury ranges rose 12.6% and the price of branded items went up 12.5%.
Price hikes for grocery staples including butter and spreads, milk and cheese were much bigger, according to the Which? survey – up 29%, 26% and 22% respectively, across all supermarket chains. Bakery items were up 19.5% and savoury pies, pastries and quiches rose 18.5%.
Sue Davies, the head of food policy at Which?, said:“Some households are already skipping meals to make ends meet and our findings show trust in supermarkets taking a hit as many people worry they are putting profits before the people suffering during this cost of living crisis.
“Supermarkets must do more, Which? is calling for them to ensure everyone has easy access to basic, affordable food ranges at a store near them, particularly in areas where people are most in need.”
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