Ever since Rishi Sunak took over his party in October 2022, Conservative MPs have been debating his ability to recover their fortunes. The thinking tends to follow two precedents. Will he manage a 1992-style surprise victory, or is the Tories’ third prime minister in two years destined to lead the Tories into a painful, 1997-style defeat?
This week’s YouGov poll in the Telegraph predicting Labour would win a majority of 120 seats, were an election held now, makes the case for the latter option. According to the expansive poll, the Tories would face an electoral wipeout and lose every “red wall” seat they won in 2019. That result would also include multiple Michael Portillo moments – with 11 cabinet ministers, including leadership frontrunner Penny Mordaunt, tipped to lose their seats.
