Rishi Sunak has finally fired the starting gun on the general election campaign, stunning Westminster by calling a snap poll for 4 July, ending months of speculation.
In a speech in the pouring rain outside 10 Downing Street, the prime minister defended his record on the economy, national security and immigration as he set out the key battleground issues he intends to campaign on over the next six weeks.
The election, he said, would be a choice between himself and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, who vowed to end Tory “chaos” and bring back economic “stability” during his own election address.
Voters will indeed choose between the two party leaders at the ballot box. But they will also select their local MPs – 650 to be precise – and there are several Conservative Party big beasts at risk of being ejected from the Commons, with Labour commanding a 21 per cent lead in the polls, according to one tracker.
Jeremy Hunt
Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is perhaps the most high-profile Tory MP at risk during the summer election.
Mr Hunt, who has served in the cabinet almost continually since 2010, is defending a majority of 8,817 in the new Godalming and Ash constituency, which takes in parts of Mr Hunt’s current South West Surrey seat.
A majority that big would usually leave the incumbent safe, but the size of the swing away from the Tories means Mr Hunt, a former health secretary, faces a battle to hang on in the ‘blue wall’ seat.
The Liberal Democrats will be the main challengers in the seat. The party took control of Surrey Heath Council in May 2023 and has also become the largest party in Waverley Borough Council in Mr Hunt’s area.
Paul Fellows, a council leader campaigning on the NHS, will stand for the Lib Dems in the seat, having run for South West Surrey at the 2019 general election.
Grant Shapps
Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, has a majority of 10,995 in Welwyn Hatfield but the size of the swing away from the Tories means he is also at risk.
Labour came second in the seat at the 2019 general election, securing 31.6 per cent of the vote.
Andrew Lewin, who has worked in social housing, has been chosen as the party’s candidate for the 2024 election.
Penny Mordaunt
Penny Mordaunt is said to be on manoeuvres to take the Tory leadership crown should Mr Sunak lose the election.
But the House of Commons leader could find she is moving out of Westminster altogether come 5 July, if the polls ring true.
She holds a majority of 15,780 in Portsmouth North.
Labour, which came second in the second in 2019, has chosen Amanda Martin, a former teacher, to run for the seat.
Johnny Mercer
Johnny Mercer, the veterans minister, has a majority of 12,897 in Plymouth Moor View – the seat he pinched from Labour in 2015.
Labour will be hoping to win the constituency back and current polling suggests the party is in with a shout of doing just that.
Fred Thomas, a former royal marine, will stand for the party this year.
Sir Iain Duncan Smith
Sir Iain Duncan Smith, who has been an outspoken critic of China, is defending a majority of just 1,262 in Chingford and Woodford Green.
The former Tory leader has held the seat since 1992 but faces a major battle to hold on to it this year.
The outer London seat is near the top of Labour’s target list and Dr Faiza Shaheen, an academic and economist in the field of economic inequality, will stand for the party this year.
Jacob Rees-Mogg
Arch-Brexiteer Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg is among the other big names who could face losing his seat after spending more than a decade in the Commons.
Sir Jacob, who previously served as the business secretary and was knighted last year, retained his North East Somerset seat with a healthy majority of 14,729.
But a YouGov poll published earlier this year found Sir Jacob was trailing his main challenger in the seat, which will become North-East Somerset and Hanham.
Labour has chosen West of England Mayor Dan Norris as its candidate for the seat. He lost it to Sir Jacob in 2014.
The Lib Dems say they are the main challengers in the seat.
Steve Baker
Steve Baker, the self-styled Brexit “hardman”, was instrumental in bringing down former prime minister Theresa May.
But his own political career could have just weeks left to run – the MP for Wycombe is defending a majority of just 4,214.
Labour, who came second in the seat at the last election, has chosen Emma Reynolds as its candidate for 2024.
Ms Reynolds was the MP for Wolverhampton North East from 2010 to 2019 and served as a shadow candidate from 2013 to 2015.
Suella Braverman
Suella Braverman could also find she is on her way out of the Commons less than a year after being sacked as home secretary.
She is defending a majority of 26,086 in Fareham.
Labour came second in 2019 and will be hoping for a big result come 5 July. The party has not yet chosen a candidate for the seat.
Liz Truss
Liz Truss may be looking for a new job over the summer after setting fire to the economy during her short stint as prime minister.
She is defending a majority of 26,195 in South West Norfolk but has been warned she may be at risk.
Labour came second in 2019 and has selected Terry Jermy, a local businessman, as its candidate.
Rishi Sunak
Such is the size of Labour’s lead in the polls that even Mr Sunak, with a majority of 27,210, is at risk of being booted out of the Commons, according to one survey.
The prime minister has represented his Richmond (Yorks) seat since 2015 but could find himself out of No 10 and the Commons in just over six weeks time.
Ukip came second in the seat in 2019. Labour recently won the York and North Yorkshire mayoral contest in the area and will be hoping to win Richmond and North Allerton in July.
The party has not yet selected a candidate for the new seat.
