Texas Democratic Representative Colin Allred has hit a milestone in the Senate race against Ted Cruz: being ahead of his opponent in a survey.
Allred trailed Cruz in all surveys throughout the race, even by ten percentage points in one conducted by ActiVote between mid and late August. However, the latest one shows him ahead by one percentage point, 45% to 44%.
Conducted by Morning Consult among 2,716 likely voters between September 9 and 18, it marks a change of paradigm in what initially was considered to be a comparatively comfortable Senate race for Republicans.
The previous study included in FiveThirtyEight's poll aggregator is also from Morning Consult and showed Allred trailing by five percentage points, 42% to Cruz's 47%. The latest one marks a six point increase for Allred less than two months from the elections.
Another recent poll by Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) provided additional insight on the state of the race. It measured both candidates and the average Texan when it comes to ideology, showing that Allred and Cruz are almost equally distant from their constituents.
In an ideology scale, where 0 represented the most conservative and 10 the most liberal, the average voter scored at 4.3, placing the electorate slightly right-of-center. Allred is rated at 6.8, which is 2.5 points more liberal than the average voter, and Cruz at 1.6— 2.7 points more conservative of the electorate.
The Democratic challenger is also the most popular politician surveyed (+14 net favorable), though he is also the least known, with 44% of voters having no opinion of him or not recognizing his name. In contrast, the incumbent Senator is much more familiar to voters, with only 4% of voters having no opinion, but less popular at -8 net favorability rates. Overall, the poll showed Cruz with 47% of the support compared to Allred's 43%.
The contest between Cruz and Allred emerged as one of a small handful of unexpectedly competitive in the high-stakes fight for the Senate this fall. Allred's entry to the race last year shifted Cook Political Report's rating of the Senate seat from "solid" Republican to "likely" Republican.
Cruz fended off a strong Democratic challenge six years ago, when Beto O'Rourke came within 3 percentage points of flipping the seat. O'Rourke's bid benefited from the broader "blue wave" in the midterm election that year, and some in the state are skeptical that Allted can snag the energy he needs to finish the job this cycle, according to The Hill.
But several recent polls show Cruz struggling to cross the 50-percentage mark, making the Texas Senate race a potential bright spot for Democrats as they battle to hold their slim majority in the upper chamber.
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