ECONOMIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK
The global economy remains on track for a modest slowdown in calendar 2024, as high interest rates continue to weigh on growth. Alongside slower growth, inflation across the G-7 has cooled, and central banks have started to lower interest rates. TD Economics expects future interest rate reductions to be gradual, as central banks assess how growth and inflation respond. In addition, the evolution of geopolitical risks maintains a degree of uncertainty on both the economic outlook and the inflation trajectory.
The U.S. economy has continued to grow at a solid pace in calendar 2024 supported by resilient consumer spending and strength in business investment. High borrowing costs have curtailed residential investment, which has weighed on overall growth. With U.S. domestic demand outpacing many of its advanced economy peers, import growth has also run ahead of exports, leading to little support to growth from international trade.
Based on the October 2024 data, the U.S. job market has stabilized recently, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%, up modestly from a year ago. This can be characterized as a normalization following tight conditions that persisted for longer than expected after the pandemic. The U.S. economy carries the markings of a "soft landing" that is allowing inflation pressures to gradually drift lower and opened the door to interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank lowered its policy rate by half a point in September and another quarter point in October.
TD Economics expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to continue to lower interest rates over the next year. However, the pace of interest rate reductions has become more uncertain following the November election. Given the likelihood of increased tariffs under the new administration, and the potential for tax cuts, the risk that inflation experiences renewed upward pressure has increased. This could slow the pace of interest rate reductions. TD Economics expects the federal funds rate to be lowered to 3.25-3.50% by the end of calendar 2025 – a level that is still on the restrictive side.
After Canada's economy slowed notably in calendar 2023, strong population gains have lifted economic growth in the first half of calendar 2024. Population increases have also contributed to labour force growth outpacing job creation, taking the unemployment rate higher and cooling labour market conditions. The unemployment rate was 6.5% in October, above its pre-pandemic level, but still below its long-run average. Looking ahead, TD Economics expects population growth to slow sharply over the next few years as the federal government reduced its targets for permanent and non-permanent residents. The negative impact of the weaker population inflows on consumer spending and housing activity is likely to be more than offset by the boost to activity from lower interest rates. As such, TD Economics forecasts a modest pickup in overall economic growth in calendar 2025 from this year's estimated tepid rate of around 1%.
As a result of favourable inflation dynamics alongside a softening economy, the Bank of Canada has cut interest rates four times in calendar 2024, taking the overnight rate to 3.75% in October. TD Economics expects the Bank of Canada to continue lowering interest rates over the next year, reaching between 2.25% to 2.50% by the end of calendar 2025. Interest rates differentials between Canada and the U.S. have widened, weakening the Canadian dollar. TD Economics expects the Canadian dollar will trade in the 71 to 73 U.S. cent range over the next few quarters.
