Tasmanians are being urged to prepare for a major rain event bearing down on the island, with concerns that measures put in place after the 2016 floods are incomplete and a hard-hit town is still vulnerable.
During the 36-hour period to Friday morning, falls between 180 to 220 millimetres are forecast around the north-west and north-east, with between 30 and 60 millimetres forecast in the south-west.
In southern Tasmania, between 15 and 30 millimetres is forecast.
Townships including Railton, Latrobe, Deloraine, Forth, Ouse, Hadspen, Carrick, Wivenhoe, Burnie and Sheffield areas are expected to be worst hit in the coming days.
Acting Director of the SES Leon Smith said this week's weather event was likely to equal the 2016 Latrobe floods.
"There's been a lot of change since 2016 … we are ahead of this event," he said on Wednesday.
"We've taken every opportunity to understand this event and to push this information out to the public."
He also said a combination of heavy rainfall and strong winds was expected to cause damage, including potential power outages.
"Trees most probably will come down … which can lead to power outages, and, as we've heard, we can expect significant flooding in the areas of the north-west, north and north-east of the state," he said.
"It is a very dynamic situation that we're monitoring, but inevitably we will see flooding that will have significant consequences."
Mr Smith advised residents who live in low-lying areas prone to flooding or areas impacted during the 2016 floods to prepare as they will likely be impacted.
"Every drop of rain that the state is expected to be confronted with in coming days inevitably is going to find its way into catchments, leading to flash-flooding and riverine flooding."
Minister for Emergency Management Felix Ellis urged Tasmanians to take proactive action to lessen the burden on emergency service personnel.
"There's a range of different things we all need to do in the community in the coming days to make sure the critical job that our emergency services and SES do is not made more difficult," he said.
"Drive safe on our roads, don't go into floodwaters. It doesn't take much, and you can be swept away."
End of school holidays to add to traffic
The Bureau of Meteorology said on Wednesday that major flooding was possible in the Forth, Mersey, Lower Macquarie and Ouse areas.
Minor to moderate flooding is expected elsewhere in the north of the state as a result of the rainfall.
Tasmanian Police Assistant Commissioner Sergeant Jonathan Higgins has a simple message for residents.
"Over the next few days, watch the warnings, look at the roads that are closed, and look after yourselves. Emergency services will be there to help, but prepare now."
He also advised Tasmanians to be careful on the state's roads, with people returning from school holidays.
"Potentially there are going to be more cars on the road. Stay off the road if you don't need to be on the road [and] don't drive through floodwaters.
"You then need to be rescued and it diverts our resources away from helping others."
Latrobe residents hoping for no repeat of 2016
One of the areas on high alert is the north-west town of Latrobe, which was inundated by flood waters in 2016.
The flooding in Latrobe was part of a state-wide catastrophe that claimed three lives and caused around $200 million of damage to property and infrastructure.
Latrobe mayor Peter Freshney said construction of a long-awaited levee system around the town has been complex and was not expected to be completed until May 2023.
"We're part through building a flood mitigation system and here we are almost being threatened by downpours again, so we will see how we get through this," he said.
"I see anxiety and concern when these weather warnings do come out. When the Bureau of Meteorology put these reports out then, of course, people are aware, they are concerned, and they'll be keeping a watch out, no doubt."
He said council staff would be ready to respond if needed over the coming days.
"We are doing what we can, we are making plans and ensuring we are able to respond if we receive any requests for assistance," he said.
"We hope the impact of the rain will be short-lived."
'We are deciding on an escape route'
Gavin Imlach is the owner of the caravan park on the banks of the Mersey River in Latrobe and said he was planning for the worst-case scenario.
He is hoping a flood evacuation will not be necessary — 25 guests are currently staying at Latrobe's caravan park, which was inundated in 2016.
Mr Imlach said the SES had been in contact with him and would be prepared if the river breaches its banks.
"We're putting in an action plan now, which we didn't have an opportunity to do in 2016. We are deciding on a route to escape from and where to escape to," he said.
"We didn't have any warning in 2016, we just woke up with the water around us."
Please remember:
- Never drive, walk, play, ride or swim through floodwaters
- Do not go near storm drains and pipes, causeways, waterways, ravines and rivers
- Drive to the conditions
- Move livestock and equipment to higher ground if it is safe to do so
- Ensure your pets are safe
- If you don't live in the affected area, stay away as conditions may be dangerous
- Call SES 132 500 for non-life-threatening flood and storm emergency assistance
- Call triple-0 in an emergency
- Check Tasmania Police's website for updated roads information
- Check updated weather warnings on the BOM website
