- In short: The Tasmanian town of Huonville has "dodged a bullet" after warnings of a major flood failed to materialise, raising questions about why the modelling didn't match the outcome
- What's next? Authorities are investigating why the river gauge at Huonville went offline during the emergency
When a major flood warning was issued for his hometown late on Wednesday night, John Allport remained skeptical.
It had been raining all day and authorities feared a repeat of the 2016 floods that inundated 15 homes in Huonville, south of Hobart.
As a precaution, residents close to the river were advised to prepare to evacuate in the middle of the night.
But Mr Allport — who has run a café and boat business on the edge of the Huon River for 33 years — was confident it wouldn't burst its banks.
"I tend to watch the monitoring stations so I can see what's happening," he said.
"I didn't really think we were going to get what they were predicting."
He turned out to be right.
Rather than breaching the major flood level of 4 metres, the river peaked within the minor range at 3.46 metres.
No homes were inundated and Mr Allport said it was nowhere near the scale of the 2016 disaster, when more than 30 centimetres of water flowed through his cafe.
The better-than-expected outcome made him question the decision to issue the major flood warning.
"They're probably better off to be cautious," he said.
"But then you can be overcautious, and if you're overcautious too often, it's a bit like the boy that cried wolf."
Flood modelling 'both an art and a science'
At a press conference earlier in the day, officials were asked why their modelling was so off the mark.
"It's both an art and a science," State Emergency Service executive director Mick Lowe said.
"Obviously the rainfall in amongst the catchments varies every time [so] it makes it really hard to model on previous events."
He said the decision to issue a warning comes down to the anticipated risk, especially when floodwaters are expected close to dwellings.
"The safety of the community is at the absolute forefront of all decision making."
Luke Johnston, from the Bureau of Meteorology, said while there had been significant rainfall in the upper catchment, there was uncertainty about how fast it would move down the river system.
If the peak at Huonville had occurred earlier in the night, he said it would have coincided with the high tide, increasing the risk of a significant flood.
"Thankfully, the peak was around 3am in Huonville and it was after the low tide had occurred," he said.
"So we dodged a bit of a bullet there."
Mr Johnston also revealed that during last night's emergency, the river gauge at Huonville went offline.
He said the cause was under investigation but SES members were on hand to provide river height estimates throughout the night.
During the 2016 emergency, there was also a separate instrumentation outage at the Tahune River bridge.
Resident 'relieved' as waters recede
For local resident Angela Rivas, the prospect of a flood on her doorstep made for a sleepless night.
She only moved into her riverside house six months ago, and when SES officers knocked on her door at 11pm, the nerves kicked in.
"Quite anxious, always looking outside, didn't sleep," she said.
At one point, police also showed up to offer a voluntary evacuation to Hobart but she decided to stay home to be with her pets.
As the hours ticked by, it proved to be the right decision, with the emergency warning lifted in the early hours of the morning.
"So relieved, so relieved," she said.
"It's just amazing to see how quickly it's gone down since 5am."
While the flood threat is over, authorities are urging motorists to take care in case there is debris on roads in the area.
