With the total number of COVID-19 infections tipping over 100,000, you would have had to be living under a rock to not notice the recent wave of illness breaking out across Tasmania. But, experts say there is good reason not to panic.
It is seeing schools go without teachers, businesses temporarily shut down and essential workers forced to stay home due to rules around close contacts.
But let's put the rate of transmission in Tasmania into perspective.
Tasmania has the highest rate of infection per capita in the country, with one-in-five people having had COVID-19, according to Greens MP and epidemiologist Rosalie Woodruff.
"If we were a country, we'd be ranked at least fourth-highest in the world," she said.
This was a statistic echoed by the state's Deputy Director of Public Health, Dr Julie Graham.
"[But] we have peaked earlier than other states, [and] national modelling shows case numbers will come down by the end of April."
While these figures may look worrying, we need to remember Tasmania has the lowest number of deaths in the country.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, 32 people have died due to COVID-related illness.
So why might this be? One word — vaccines.
"We have high case rates in Tasmania, but hospital rates and death rates are very low and that's because of vaccinations," said Dr Graham.
Over 99 per cent of Tasmanians over the age of 16 have had at least one dose of the vaccine, while 98.58 per cent have had their second.
The number of those over 16 who have had their booster shot has lagged behind at just over 67 per cent.
And with winter just around the corner in the southern hemisphere, authorities want to see those numbers bolstered.
As we brace for winter, should we expect case numbers to get worse?
Short answer: We can't be sure.
Dr Peter Collingnon, Professor of Infectious Diseases at the Australian National University, said it was something we were going to have to monitor in the next few months.
"Now we would expect in winter that we may see an increase in cases not only of COVID but influenza and every other respiratory virus, which is why every winter there's stress on our hospitals compared to summer," he said.
"Will that happen again this winter? Well, I think we don't know.
"My view was it was likely, but conversely, because we've had so many infections over the last few months and such a high proportion of the population already infected, it may not be as bad as I and many others thought it would be.
So how important are vaccinations?
Dr Collingnon said Tasmania was in a better position than it was last year, despite soaring daily case tolls, because of Australia's high vaccine uptake.
"The numbers are important because it tells us what we might likely see in our hospitals in a week's time, providing we know the age of the people who are infected," he said.
"Obviously the older you are the more you're at risk, even with vaccination.
"The really important thing to remember is with vaccination — particularly with boosters — we have decreased our chance of getting serious disease and dying by a factor of ten- to twentyfold," he said.
"[That's] a 95 per cent decreased chance."
'Don't throw your hands up in horror'
While there's not much research that has been done on the level of immunity in people who have previously had COVID-19, Dr Collingnon said we could look at countries overseas to see what advantages it may have.
"There's some data out of Qatar that shows people who were double vaccinated and then [had] a natural infection, in fact, had better antibody levels and protection than those who got a booster," he said.
"We're better off than a year ago. I think as time goes on, because of drugs that have been developed and appear to be quite effective [plus vaccines], we will continue to be in a better position in the future that we were in the past."
