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Fortune
Fortune
Eleanor Pringle

Tariffs are beginning to look like the ‘dog that didn’t bark’ to Wall Street, with inflation expected to take a one-time hit and Trump unlikely to enforce letter threats

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters alongside Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in the Oval Office at the White House on May 6, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Credit: Anna Moneymaker—Getty Images)
  • Fears that Trump’s tariff hikes would stoke long-term economic volatility have eased, with Goldman Sachs now expecting a one-time rise in prices rather than a sustained surge. As markets shrug off the Aug. 1 deadline, analysts warn that investor calm could embolden the White House to follow through—especially if economic data remains strong.

When Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent first described tariffs as the “dog that didn’t bark,” analysts weren’t convinced. Many believed that businesses would pass through hikes to consumers—as various datasets confirmed—thus pushing up inflation.

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