The current tariff discussion is amusing in the sense of how quickly everyone’s become an economist. Much of that is noise. But more importantly to investors, it illustrates the reality that the unknown is usually worse than the known. That means investors are concerned about what might happen with the incoming administration’s tariff policy without knowing what that policy will actually be.
Right now, economists can only go by what they’re hearing. And that means that the Trump administration plans to use tariffs as a blunt instrument to promote manufacturing in America. But a funny thing happens when a president tries to turn campaign promises into policy. They usually look a lot less like promises and more like objectives.
