The India Meteorological Department (IMD) delivered a sobering update on Friday by maintaining its forecast for a below-average monsoon in 2026. The weather watchdog warned that the weather pattern called El Nino (which literally means 'the child') is rapidly locking into place across the equatorial Pacific Ocean with a staggering 92% probability of dominating the crucial June to September season. With cumulative rainfall projected at just 90% of the long term average, the nation is staring at its weakest monsoon in over a decade.
A research report from HDFC takes a deep dive to map out the impact of below-normal rainfall on crops and inflation. The report breaks down how the developing dry spell might squeeze agricultural output and spike inflation.
