A combination of factors, including a strong wave of sympathy, played a pivotal role in securing the emphatic victory of Congress candidate Chandy Oommen in the recent Puthuppally Assembly by-election, necessitated by the passing of his father, Oommen Chandy.
Mr. Oommen recorded a resounding victory, surpassing his father’s performance in the 2011 Kerala Assembly polls. He won by a margin of 37,719 votes, while his father’s best victory margin was 33,255 in the constituency that he had represented for 53 years. Mr. Oommen’s main opponent, Jaick C. Thomas of the CPI(M), put up a good fight but failed to overcome the ‘Chandy factor’.
Congress leaders attributed the victory to three key elements: Oommen Chandy’s wide appeal with the electorate, a new-found unity within the Congress, and growing dissatisfaction with the ruling CPI (M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) coalition in Kerala.
On the other hand, the CPI (M) leadership rationalised its defeat, citing factors such as the significant impact of the sympathy wave and alleging that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had transferred votes to the Congress. The BJP, a relatively minor political player in the constituency, received just 6,558 votes, half of what it achieved in the 2021 Assembly election, leaving the party leadership red-faced.
While the outcome of the Puthuppally by-election may not alter Kerala’s political landscape, it serves as a barometer for the Lok Sabha polls next year. There are parallels between the Puthuppally and Thrikkakara by-elections, which were held in June last year. In Thrikkakara too, emotions played a dominant role, leading to Congress candidate Uma Thomas’s victory following her husband P.T. Thomas’s death.
In Puthuppally, the confluence of the sympathy wave and voter hostility towards the CPI(M) was apparent. In both the Thrikkakara and Puthuppally by-elections, the voter turnout among CPI(M) sympathisers and supporters decreased — the polling figures dropped by more than 5% points in both constituencies. However, the erosion in votes was notably more substantial in Puthuppally when compared to Thrikkakkara.
The fact remains that the electoral result in Puthuppally holds a clear message for both the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the LDF. Flushed with victory, State leaders of the Congress have already declared that the UDF would grab all the 20 seats in the parliamentary elections. However, the simmering factional feud in the party could prove to be a spoiler, which the other coalition partners are acutely aware of. For the CP(M), the Puthupally result should serve as a wake-up call for introspection and trigger a midcourse correction to redefines its commitment to rooting out corruption and nepotism.
The announcement of the by-election came just 21 days after Oommen Chandy’s passing. Still, the CPI(M) put up a political fight by fielding Mr. Thomas for the third time. Incidentally, the by-election coincided with a turbulent phase for the ruling LDF, marked by a series of controversies. These included Speaker A.N. Shamseer’s comment on Lord Ganesha, allegations of illegal payments to the IT firm run by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s daughter T. Veena, and the searches conducted by the Enforcement Directorate at the premises of CPI(M) legislator and former minister A.C. Moideen in connection with a money laundering probe into the alleged ₹100-crore loan scam at the Karuvannur Service Co-operative Bank in Thrissur.
It is clear that the CPI(M) leadership had anticipated its nominee’s defeat, especially after the huge turnout for the funeral procession of Oommen Chandy from Thiruvananthapuram to Kottayam. However, it did not foresee such a crushing loss.
The high voltage campaign in Puthuppally, with the Congress and CPI(M) unsparing in their attacks against each other, also underscores that the INDIA alliance may not be practically viable in Kerala. A steadfast anti-BJP stance, the only common denominator, may not be enough for the warring parties and their coalition partners to bury the hatchet and face a general election on the same platform. The CPI(M) is approaching the upcoming elections cautiously, given the fact that it won only one of the 20 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The party is also aware that its relevance within the INDIA alliance may be questioned if the LDF puts up a dismal show in the Lok Sabha polls.
