China could attempt some “manoeuvring” over the issue of Taiwan during US president Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing next week, a top Taiwanese intelligence official warned on Thursday.
Mr Trump is heading to China for a highly-anticipated bilateral summit with Xi Jinping, a year after entering a tariff war with Beijing. Experts believe this is Washington’s attempt to smooth ties with its trade nemesis.
Mr Trump will be in Beijing from 14-15 May, where both sides are expected to discuss Chinese export controls of rare earths, an agricultural products deal for partial tariff relief, the US-Israel war on Iran, and efforts to bring stability to their relations.
A key topic and a sticking point will be China’s potential invasion of its smaller neighbour Taiwan, which the US strongly opposes.
The US has reaffirmed that its policy on the island has not changed, a Taiwanese intelligence official said.
Speaking to reporters at parliament in Taipei, National Security Bureau director-general Tsai Ming-yen said the key focus of Mr Trump’s summit with Mr Xi was likely to be management of their issues, “not fundamental problem-solving”.
“As for the Taiwan issue, I believe the Chinese communists may attempt some manoeuvring during the talks,” Mr Tsai said.
“However, on this point, the United States has continuously reaffirmed through both public and private channels that its Taiwan policy has not changed,” he added.
However, Taipei will be keenly watching for signs from the US delegation of any softening or reframing of its longstanding defence policy on Taiwan in return for economic concessions or deals from China.
China views Taiwan as its own territory and has not ruled out reunification by force, if necessary. Taiwan rejects China’s claim to sovereignty and maintains that only the island’s people can decide its future.
The Pentagon has previously maintained that the Xi administration is on track to invade the island across the Strait by 2027, and the Chinese president has reaffirmed its military readiness.
However, in a rare U-turn in March this year, US intelligence said China didn’t plan to invade Taiwan in 2027, back-pedalling on a previous intelligence assessment ahead of Mr Trump’s planned summit.
The US does not officially recognise Taiwan due to its One China policy, but is obligated to assist Taipei to defend itself under US federal law in place for many years, which has impacted its relations with Beijing.
Earlier this week, secretary of state Marco Rubio said Taiwan is likely to be a topic of conversation between Mr Trump and Mr Xi, but both countries understand it is in neither of their interests to see any “destabilising events” occur with regards to Taiwan. China has indicated the contrary.
On Thursday, Liang Wen-chieh, spokesperson for Taiwan’s Chinese-policy body, the Mainland Affairs Council, said China “very much wants” to discuss Taiwan at the summit, even if the US does not really want to.
“It appears that the Taiwan issue will come up, but the hope is that it will not go beyond manageable bounds and will not have an adverse impact on Taiwan,” he added.
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