One of the most compelling parts of Matt Eberflus’ pitch when he was a head-coaching candidate last year was his emphasis on causing takeaways and preventing giveaways. Turnovers are so central to his philosophy that he dedicated one of the letters in his H.I.T.S. program to them.
But that’s an easy thing to promise and a tough one to deliver.
The Bears have 36 takeaways in 28 games over Eberflus’ two seasons, which ranks 18th in the NFL in that span heading into their game Monday against the Vikings. And given that the roster was stripped last season and remains only partially rebuilt this season, this team isn’t good enough to win without them.
The Bears are 1-10 under Eberflus in games when they don’t get a takeaway. For context, since the Bears’ record under virtually any criteria likely will be bad, the rest of the NFL still managed to win 28% of games in which the opponent didn’t commit a turnover. The more takeaways, the better, of course, but it’s possible to play well enough to win without them.
When the Bears have gotten two or more takeaways, they’ve had a chance — like last week when they got four and should’ve beaten the Lions.
In the 12 times the Bears have gotten multiple turnovers, they’ve won five and had four losses by one score or less. That’s a potential spark of optimism against the Vikings, who have committed the third-most in the league this season with 20 in 11 games.
Nonetheless, takeaways often are random, and that’s important to note because it’s something a coach can merely demand and expect to get.
Eberflus can talk all he wants about “city fumbles” where the ball is loose in a crowd and “country fumbles” where there’s more space, but the ball’s elongated shape makes bounces unpredictable. The Bears can practice Charles Tillman’s “Peanut Punch” every day, but don’t be mistaken: Every single team in the league practices protecting against it just as much.
Eberflus always says, “You get what you emphasize,” but when it comes to turnovers, it’s more likely that teams get what they pay for. The most logical way to prompt mistakes by an opponent is with a pass rush that ratchets up its urgency and clutters its judgment. And the Bears, who were last in the NFL in sacks last season and are once again this season, haven’t done much of that.
Even then, though, there’s only a loose connection between pass rush prowess and takeaways. Of the top 10 teams in pressure percentage this season, just four also are in the top 10 in takeaways. Again, turnovers are often random, making it unlikely that any coach truly has the secret to them.
If Eberflus knew something everyone else didn’t, the Bears would’ve seen it by now.
Eberflus and general manager Ryan Poles inherited playmaker potential in the secondary with Jaylon Johnson and Eddie Jackson, then drafted cornerbacks Kyler Gordon and Tyrique Stevenson and safety Jaquan Brisker using their metrics to pick disruptive defenders. They also signed linebacker Tremaine Edmunds to a $72 million contract thinking he’d be a turnover machine.
All those moves theoretically have been undercut by the Bears’ lack of a pass rush, which is a big reason Poles traded for defensive end Montez Sweat last month and signed him to a four-year, $98 million contract extension.
Sweat has been effective, but pass rush isn’t a one-man job. The Bears need a second dangerous defensive end and will have to wait for the draft to get one. They need movement in the middle, and it’s unsure whether they can get that steadily from veterans Justin Jones and Andrew Billings or rookies Gervon Dexter and Zacch Pickens.
Without that, it comes down to Eberflus’ strategizing as the defensive play caller. And that simply hasn’t put the Bears over the top when it comes to takeaways.
