MIAMI — The Atlantic is packed — everywhere you look, there’s a system to watch.
Forecasters on Wednesday are watching five systems, including one near the Caribbean that Florida needs to keep a close eye on.
That system is bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Windward Islands. The National Hurricane Center expects the system will turn into a tropical depression within the next couple of days. Computer models are also in agreement that the system could strengthen into Tropical Storm Hermine.
The hurricane center is giving the disturbance a 70% chance of formation through the next 48 hours and a 90% chance of formation through the next five days.
Forecasters expect the system will move west-northwest across the southern Windward Islands Wednesday, and then move toward the central Caribbean Sea later this week. However, after that, the models split on where it will go. Forecasters say it’s also too soon to know what type of hazards the system could bring to Florida, if any.
“Early model runs show it could impact the U.S. However, it depends on how fast and strong it gets,” WSVN meteorologist Vivian Gonzalez said on Twitter Wednesday morning.
A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was scheduled to investigate the system Wednesday night.
“Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is forecast to affect northwestern Venezuela, northeastern Colombia, and the ABC island chain later this week,” the hurricane center noted in its advisory at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday.
Also on forecasters’ radar: Hurricane Fiona, a powerful Category 4 storm forecast to approach Bermuda late Thursday. Tropical Storm Gaston is swirling in the north-central Atlantic, far from land. And two other disturbances in the eastern Atlantic, one which could turn into a tropical depression in the next several days.
Here’s a forecast breakdown:
—Other disturbances
The other system with a depression chance is a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Thursday.
Forecasters say conditions could be friendly enough for the system to turn into a tropical depression this weekend as it slowly moves north, between west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.
The hurricane center in the afternoon upped its formation chances from 20% to 30% for the next 48 hours and a 50% chance of formation through the next five days.
The other disturbance forecasters are watching is several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
The hurricane center said that while it’s in a “dry environment,” the system could see some “slow development” over the next few days while it moves northwest and then west over the Atlantic.
Forecasters are giving it a 20% chance of formation through the next 48 hours and a 30% chance of formation through the next five days.
—Hurricane Fiona
Fiona has strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane and is about 650 miles southwest of Bermuda and 1,420 miles south-southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia, according to the hurricane center.
The forecast shows Fiona approaching Bermuda late Thursday as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. This is the minimum sustained wind speed needed to be considered a Cat 4.
“Fiona is expected to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a powerful hurricane-force cyclone late Friday and Saturday, and could produce significant impacts from high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall,” the hurricane center said. “Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Fiona and updates to the forecast.”
Fiona’s swells are also continuing to affect the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas.
“These swells will continue to spread westward across the southwestern Atlantic toward the northwestern Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States during the next day or two. Swells from Fiona are expected to reach Bermuda by early Thursday,” the hurricane center said. “The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.”
—Tropical Storm Gaston
Tropical Storm Gaston is maintaining its strength in the north central Atlantic, with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph with higher gusts, according to the hurricane center. Gaston is about 775 miles west of the Azores.
The storm, which is far from the U.S, is quickly moving northeast and is expected to turn east on Thursday, and then stall near the western Azores later this week. If the storm survives, a turn to the north or northwest could occur over the weekend.
Forecasters expect it will become a post-tropical extratropical cyclone in a couple of days. The Azores should monitor the system.
Hermine is the next storm name on the list for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.
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