Sydney is expected to hit 23C on Saturday, with the unseasonably warm weather forecast to continue for the rest of the winter.
Hugh McDowell, a meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology, said the bureau’s long-range forecast showed Sydney could expect more unseasonable temperatures.
“For the rest of winter and into spring, there’s a very high chance of above average temperatures, and actually quite a high chance of unusually warm temperatures as well,” he said.
Last week, the United Nations’ weather agency declared the world was in the grip of another El Niño event, which it said would likely see a rise in global temperatures and disruptive weather and climate patterns.
On Friday, Sydneysiders would have been forgiven for walking outside and forgetting it is winter. Temperatures hit 22C and are likely to hit 23C on Saturday, reaching five to six degrees above average for July.
McDowell said the current warm weather was due to a trifecta of a high pressure over Sydney, air dragging down into the city from the north and clear skies.
Melburnians also experienced slightly above average temperatures on Friday and Saturday, McDowell said. But not enough to ditch the winter woollies – it reached 13C on Friday and hit 15C on Saturday.
So far this month, the temperature in Sydney has been above normal, at an average of 19.2C. McDowell said there was only one day in July that fell below, which sank to 15.9C.
Climate scientists say the El Niño event in tandem with global heating could push average temperatures globally to all-time record highs this year or, more likely, next year.
But the bureau is still on “El Niño watch” for Australia because its thresholds to declare it have not yet been met. For it to be declared, sea surface temperatures in a central region of the equatorial Pacific have to be 0.8C above average, and a resulting shift in the atmosphere.
McDowell said the Bureau has determined so far a 70% chance of an El Niño event developing soon in Australia.
“The ocean temperatures in the Pacific are at El Niño thresholds, but the atmosphere has not responded yet,” he said.
