It's going to be hot for most of Australia over the coming days, while wet weather is forecast for the Top End.
Western Australia is currently sweltering through hot temperatures and Bureau of Meteorology senior meteorologist Miriam Bradbury says that heat is going to move eastwards.
"It won't be quite as extreme as it has been in WA," Ms Bradbury says.
She says parts of southern South Australia, Victoria and parts of Tasmania will see low intensity heatwave from Thursday.
On Friday, that heat will intensify and spread to all of Tasmania, NSW, Victoria and south-western parts of Queensland.
For much of the south-east, the heatwave will weaken over the weekend.
But that heat will linger inland in the eastern states and northern Western Australia.
Meanwhile, up north, Cape York and the Gulf of Carpentaria are set to cop a drenching.
With an active monsoon trough and a tropical low, parts of the Top End could see very high rainfall in the coming days.
"That combination is resulting in a very wet forecast for that part of the country," Ms Bradbury says.
While she says that will start to weaken from Thursday, the warning area for heavy rainfall could expand or change as those systems move over the land.
"We already have minor to moderate flood warnings and central and western Queensland," she says.
And because those areas are still recovering from previous rainfall, there's potential for riverine flooding from this system.
Here's a state by state breakdown:
ACT and NSW
High temperatures are expected in NSW.
And while there were no heatwave warnings issued for the state as of Wednesday morning, Ms Bradbrury says one may be issued in coming days.
She says the heat will hang around over the weekend for central and northern NSW.
And in the next day or so, there could be storms in the "usual pockets of the country", including north-eastern NSW.
Queensland
South-western parts of the state will see high temperatures in the coming days, with the heat to hang around until the weekend in the west.
There could still be a few storms in the state's south-east, with severe storms possible in central Queensland, heading up around Rockhampton.
Further north, the area up in Cape York and around the Gulf is being impacted by the tropical low and monsoon trough.
Parts of the area could see significant rainfall totals over the coming days.
South Australia
Southern parts of the state will see higher temperatures from Thursday.
They will be low-intensity heatwaves, but that could intensify on Friday.
Tasmania
Parts of the state will see higher temperatures from Thursday.
But on Friday, Ms Bradbury says there could be "pockets of severe heatwave".
Keep an eye out for significant heatwave warnings on Friday and Saturday.
Victoria
It will start heating up from Thursday.
But there could be intense heatwaves in parts of the state over Friday and Saturday.
"In Melbourne, we've got three 30+ days in a row," Ms Bradbury says.
Western Australia
"We've already got severe heatwaves in parts of WA, that's been going on for a number of days already," Ms Bradbury says
"That's going to intensify over the next few days into the weekend."
Parts of the Pilbara are set to see extreme heatwave conditions on Friday and Saturday, with temperatures in the low to mid 40s.
"That's because it's been so hot for such a long period of time," Ms Bradbury says.
And while the heat should ease in the east of the country, there will not be the same relief from hot temperatures in WA.
But temperatures may start to come back down closer to average by about this time next week.
Does this have anything to do with ex-tropical cyclone Gabrielle?
Not really.
That system has moved well away from Australia, impacting northern New Zealand.
The main lingering impact of the cyclone here in Australia is hazardous surf in Queensland and NSW.
Ms Bradbury says that can often happen with tropical cyclones and can continue for a number of days.
Is this normal for this time of the year?
"It depends on the summer in general, " Ms Bradbury says.
On a whole, we had a wet, cool spring and that extended into early summer.
So we have not seen too many really hot days in early summer.
"It's really not unusual to see brief heatwaves moving through," Ms Bradbury says.
"A heatwave is defined over a three-day period; it's not a one-off hot day.
"It's much more significant for WA.
"It is a hot part of Australia, but this has been a very persistent heatwave."
Are we still in a La Niña?
Yep.
"It's definitely still having an impact," Ms Bradbury says.
"We are starting to see a weakened influence on our weather system, but it's definitely still playing its part."
But Ms Bradbury says there's always a bunch of other climate drivers at play.
"One rain event can never be entirely attributed to a La Niña," she says.
In its latest fortnightly Climate Driver Update, the BOM says we may hit that neutral level in March.
Here's what BOM had to say in its El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook:
"Oceanic indicators such as tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have weakened to ENSO-neutral values.
"However, the atmosphere has been slower to respond, and remains indicative of La Niña.
"All climate models anticipate that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific will remain neutral well into the austral autumn."
The BOM flagged the La Niña was showing "some signs" of weakening in late December.
Each of the fortnightly ENSO forecasts since the beginning of the year continued on with that trend.
BOM described the weather phenomenon as "weakening" every fortnight since the January 4 update.
Is an El Niño coming?
It is too early to say for sure — we won't start seeing indicators of that until winter or spring.
And while figures might suggest whether La Niña or El Niño is likely, it's not certain.
"Sometimes the climate drivers don't act in the way we expect them to," Ms Bradbury says.
The BOM reckons we will return to neutral levels and it will stay that way until "at least mid-autumn".
As part of its fortnightly update, BOM published graphs showing the average international model outlooks for the NINO3.4 index.
The NINO3.4 index is the average of sea surface temperature anomalies taken from a specific area in the Pacific Ocean.
It is what the National Climate Centre uses to classify La Niña or El Niño conditions.
Australia used to use the NINO3 index, but now uses readings from between NIN03 and NINO4 because readings from that area have shown to be more closely related to the Australian climate.
Here's a visual:
So now that you know more about where that data comes from, let's look at the forecasts — remembering they're not set in stone.
Here's what the BOM's graph shows for March:
And here's how it's looking for May:
The BOM says any ENSO outlooks that look beyond autumn should be viewed with caution.
Keeping that in mind, the arrow between La Niña and El Niño edges closer to El Niño in July:
How much of this is to do with climate change?
The BOM says said climate change "continues to influence Australian and global climates".
Here's more on that:
"Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 degrees Celsius over the period 1910 to 2021.
"There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia."
