As the college football landscape continues its evolutionary shift of teams vying for power and exposure through unprecedented conference realignment, Notre Dame sits silently in its independent corner watching from afar.
According to Sports Illustrated’s Pat Forde, a source familiar with the logic within Notre Dame’s athletic department believes the school will remain independent. However, with the major domino of USC and UCLA announcing their decision to join the Big Ten in 2024, it has caught the attention of Fighting Irish athletic director Jack Swarbrick. As the Big Ten and SEC race to become two of college football’s 16-team super conferences by 2025, Notre Dame’s decision to realign could come down to implications surrounding the College Football Playoff.
Swarbrick recently told ESPN’s Heather Dinich there are three potential reasons why remaining as an independent could become “unsustainable”.
“The loss of a committed broadcast partner, the loss of a fair route into the postseason, or such an adverse financial consequence that you had to reconsider,” Swarbrick said.
Forde: College Sports Is Waiting for Signs From Notre Dame, but Independent Irish Can Afford to Wait
But, on the other hand, Swarbrick said there are pros and cons of remaining an independent right now while the CFP remains a field of four.
“There are years where it will make it more difficult for you to make the playoff," Swarbrick said in a recent ESPN interview. “We recognize that. But we've had a pretty darn good history of positioning ourselves to make the playoff during the first phase of its existence, and I think we can continue to down the road.”
Swarbrick, who enters his 15th season leading Notre Dame’s athletic program, was one of several executives who devised the initial proposal for a 12-team playoff field.
Last June, the CFP committee began considering that model that would have featured the highest-ranked conference champion as well as six at-large bids. The four highest-ranked conference champions would receive a first-round bye, leaving the remaining eight teams to play in the opening round.
But in November 2021, the CFP’s selection committee introduced an alternate 12-team postseason model that guaranteed a berth to each Power 5 champion and the sixth automatic bid would go to the highest ranked Group of Five champion. Then, the final six schools would be at-large selections based on the final CFP rankings.
The model would have still favored the soon-to-be expanded Big Ten and SEC. But, a larger field with more “at-large bids” could continue to benefit the Fighting Irish as an independent, according to Dinich.
Notre Dame has been a member of the ACC in all sports except for football and ice hockey since 2013. However, there is a possibility the SEC could pursue some of the league’s top-tier teams like Clemson, Florida State and North Carolina.
The current CFP contract runs through January 2026. If more realignment happens, particularly with schools leaving the ACC for the SEC, or the Big Ten continues its expansion, Notre Dame could be forced to join the Big Ten, a league that has attempted to go after the program for years.
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