The U.S. economy’s odds of avoiding a recession are narrowing — and quickly.
Economists polled for Bankrate’s Third-Quarter Economic Indicator say there’s a near 2-in-3 chance (or 65 percent) that the U.S. economy could contract within the next 12 to 18 months. Those estimates have risen dramatically since the start of the year. In the first-quarter poll, economists put the odds at 1-in-3 and ramped up those projections to 52 percent in the second-quarter survey.
A larger majority than in the prior-quarter poll also say the economy’s chances of contracting are at 50 percent or more, at 79 percent versus 65 percent in the previous survey period. One economist also said the financial system has a 100 percent chance of contracting, while just two put the odds at less than half.
