A month can be a very long time in football. Rewind to the beginning of April and Leeds United's collective tails was up, with Javi Gracia side having secured vital wins against Wolves and Nottingham Forest as it looked like the new boss had steadied the ship and the club began to pull away from the drop zone.
This newfound confidence was reflected by data analysts FiveThirtyEight, who crunched the numbers on April 5 - a day after Leeds' 2-1 win over Forest - and found that Gracia's side had just a ten per cent chance of going down. They forecast a 13th-place finish - in line with Andrea Radrizzani's pre-season expectations - and an end-of-season total of 40 points.
And all looked good shortly before the half-time break against Crystal Palace in Leeds' next outing, only for an Eagles equaliser before the break to be followed by four second-half goals which began a run of four defeats in five games that cost Gracia his job.
READ MORE: Sean Dyche sends 'another step' warning to Everton amid Leeds United, Leicester and Forest battle
The appointment of Sam Allardyce followed, with the former England boss kicking off with a 2-1 defeat at Manchester City on Saturday, before other results underlined just how fragile the club's position is, as Leeds ended the weekend in 19th place, two points off safety with just three games to play.
And this is reflected by FiveThirtyEight's latest projection, which gives Leeds a 71 per cent chance of dropping out of the Premier League, with a 19th-place finish and 33-point total the most likely outcome.
The American analysts have closed the book on Southampton, giving them a higher than 99 per cent chance of the drop, while they believe Leicester City will also see their top-flight spell end later this month.
This weekend sees Leeds host Newcastle United and the website gives Allaradyce's men just a 23 per cent chance of emerging victorious, while Leicester have a 24 per cent chance of beating Liverpool at the King Power Stadium. The two sides just above the drop zone have slimmer chances of a victory this weekend though, with Forest an 18 per cent chance at Chelsea and Everton have just a nine per cent chance at home to Manchester City.
READ NEXT:
Sam Allardyce's £30m Leeds United transfer claim underlines man management
Newcastle rocked by Sean Longstaff injury doubts heading into Leeds United clash
Eddie Howe warns Leeds United that Newcastle will 'come back firing' after Arsenal defeat
Sam Allardyce's big Leeds United decision vindicated despite Manchester City defeat
Danny Murphy tells Leeds United not to make second Sam Allardyce mistake next season
