Alarms bells blared throughout north London this weekend after Manchester City made up some critical ground on Arsenal, fueling fears of a potential calamitous collapse from Mikel Arteta’s men.
The Gunners returned to Premier League action with a shock 2–1 defeat to Bournemouth on Saturday, tallying their third defeat in their last four matches across all competitions. To make matters worse, City came out 24 hours later and bulldozed Chelsea 3–0 to shrink Arsenal’s cushion atop the table to six points.
Not only do the Citizens have a game in hand, but they also get the advantage of hosting Arteta’s men next weekend. In the blink of an eye, the gap separating the two sides could all but disappear with only a handful of matches remaining.
Meanwhile, Liverpool and Chelsea are battling for the final Champions League place, with the Reds’ 2–0 win over Fulham giving them some breathing room in fifth place. At the bottom of the table, Tottenham Hotspur are inching closer to relegation after a 1–0 defeat to Sunderland.
Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer predicts the final Premier League table to pan out after the weekend’s chaotic results.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Premier League Title Winner
| Position | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Title Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Arsenal | 70 | 82.09 | 87.26% |
| 2. | Man City | 64 | 76.35 | 12.74% |
Despite their recent downturn in form, Arsenal are still Opta’s pick to win the Premier League. The Gunners are expected to tally around 82 points come the end of May, two less than Liverpool collected to top the league last season.
Arteta’s men are given a staggering 87.36% chance to secure the English crown for the first time in nearly 22 years, but before the international break, they had 97% odds. The change comes from City’s increased title chances, which now sit at 12.74%.
Still, the supercomputer sees the Citizens recording around 76 points, enough only for a runners-up finish. Sure, it’s an improvement from their shock drop to third place in 2024–25, but after so many years at the top, anything less is ultimately a failure for Pep Guardiola’s men.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Race
| Position | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Champions League Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3. | Man Utd | 55 | 66 | 96.30% |
| 4. | Aston Villa | 55 | 64.85 | 94.4% |
| 5. | Liverpool | 52 | 61.18 | 68.99% |
| 6. | Chelsea | 48 | 57 | 19.48% |
| 7. | Brighton | 46 | 55.31 | 6.61% |
| 8. | Everton | 47 | 55.22 | 6.15% |
Manchester United’s resurgence under Michael Carrick has the Red Devils sitting pretty. They are expected to finish third with around 66 points, enough to comfortably secure their return to the Champions League.
Aston Villa are not far behind. Unai Emery’s men might have fallen off in the Premier League title race, but they still are given a 94.4% chance to play in Europe’s premier club competition next season.
The fifth and final team set to qualify for the Champions League is Liverpool. The Reds, who are predicted to finish with an underwhelming 61 points, are a far cry from their 2024–25 Premier League-winning form. Still, they have the edge over Chelsea, who have won just one of their last seven Premier League matches, all but squandering their hopes of snagging a place in the top five.
Opta surprisingly rates Brighton & Hove Albion to finish seventh with 55 points, just two points behind the Blues’ predicted total. It won’t be enough for the Seagulls to notch a spot in the Europa League, but the Conference League is a reasonable consolation.
Everton are on the outside looking in. Although the Toffees will be disappointed to come so close to Europe without any reward, they will be more than happy with their predicted eighth-place finish, which would be their highest placing since the 2018–19 season.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Relegation Battle
| Position | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Relegation Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15. | Leeds | 33 | 41.87 | 8.15% |
| 16. | Nottingham Forest | 33 | 40.75 | 10.23% |
| 17. | West Ham | 32 | 38.44 | 35.56% |
| 18. | Tottenham | 30 | 37.23 | 46.06% |
| 19. | Burnley | 20 | 25.02 | 100% |
| 20. | Wolves | 17 | 23.89 | 100% |
Leeds United sit relatively safe in 15th place, the same position Opta expects the Whites to finish. They must be careful, though, considering they have dropped points in their last six league matches.
The same can be said for Nottingham Forest, who are predicted to finish in 16th place with around 41 points, one less than Leeds. Both sides have slim relegation chances—8.15% and 10.23% respectively—compared to the four teams at the bottom of the table.
Several impressive results from West Ham United over the last two months, including draws with Man Utd and Man City and their recent 4–0 thumping over Wolves, give the Hammers newfound hope. Opta has Nuno Espírito Santo’s men just escaping relegation with around 38 points.
West Ham’s climb up the standings coincided with Tottenham Hotspur’s fall. Spurs have tallied just three points in their last 12 league matches, and Roberto De Zerbi’s arrival did little to right the sinking ship in north London. Currently with a 46.06% chance of relegation, the team’s time in the Premier League is quickly running out.
One thing—or rather, two—is all but certain: Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers will compete in the Championship next season. Both teams have a 100% chance of finishing in the drop zone.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Supercomputer Predicts Premier League Table After Man City Capitalize on Arsenal’s Implosion.
