Two very different yet all-important Champions League semifinal first legs played out this week as four European giants battled to get one foot in the 2026 final.
Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich, the two best attacking teams in Europe, locked horns at the Parc des Princes on Tuesday night, 24 hours before Arsenal and Atlético Madrid, two of the most disciplined teams on the continent, faced off at the Metropolitano.
Both games played out how many expected, though there were plenty of unforeseen twists along the way. PSG secured a breathless 5–4 victory over Bayern Munich in a match fans will talk about for years, where seven different goalscorers found the back of the net in an end-to-end classic.
Arsenal’s bout with Atlético Madrid lacked the creative flair of the heavyweight battle that unfolded in Paris, but still produced plenty of talking points in a game that ended in a 1–1 draw thanks to successful penalties from Viktor Gyökeres and Julián Alvarez.
With the stage now set for the second legs once May begins, here’s how the Opta supercomputer views each team’s chances of going on to win the 2025–26 Champions League.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Winner
Opta has backed Arsenal to win the Champions League virtually all season and that hasn’t changed after the first leg of the semifinals. The supercomputer gives the Gunners a 39.13% chance to finally lift the ever-elusive trophy in Budapest.
Mikel Arteta’s men have yet to lose a game in Europe’s premier club competition this season, mustering a perfect league-phase campaign, before going unbeaten in the knockout rounds to eliminate Bayer Leverkusen and Sporting CP so far. Despite Arsenal’s rather drab style of play, Opta is not betting against a team that has not been bested by anone in the 2025–26 Champions League.
PSG are the second favorites, with a 30.83% chance to successfully defend their European crown. Like last season, the Parisians had an inconsistent league phase, but they turned it on for the knockout stage, scoring 22 goals and eliminating Monaco, Chelsea and Liverpool.
Should Luis Enrique’s men advance to the final, they would be the overwhelming pick across the board to win the competition, but the supercomputer seemingly prefers the defense of Arsenal over the exquisite firepower of PSG at this stage when neither is guaranteed to get there.
| Team | Chances of Winning |
|---|---|
| Arsenal | 39.13% |
| PSG | 30.83% |
| Bayern Munich | 22.20% |
| Atlético Madrid | 7.84% |
Bayern Munich are not too far behind PSG’s odds. Opta gives the German giants a 22.20% chance to win their first Champions League title since 2020. But they would first have to overcome the defending cup holders in the second leg to even get the opportunity.
Vincent Kompany’s side finished second in the league phase and then waltzed past Atalanta in the round of 16 before surviving a thrilling bout with Real Madrid in the quarterfinals. They would be more than worthy of a place in the final, but the supercomputer has them coming up just short for the second time in three seasons.
Atlético Madrid, meanwhile, are given essentially no chance of winning the Champions League from Opta, rating their chance of lifting the trophy in Budapest at a measly 7.84%.
Even if the Spanish outfit gets past Arsenal in the semifinals, the supercomputer sees them as no match for either PSG or Bayern Munich. Diego Simeone’s men will not be short on belief, though, considering no one pegged them to get past Barcelona in the quarterfinals either.
Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Semifinal Winners
| Second Leg | Team Most Likely to Advance |
|---|---|
| Arsenal vs. Atlético Madrid (1–1) | Arsenal (76.14%) |
| Bayern Munich vs. PSG (4–5) | PSG (60.95%) |
Opta unsurprisingly backs its two favorites—Arsenal and PSG—to win the Champions League as the teams also most likely to make the final. Arsenal are given a 76.14% chance of edging out Atlético Madrid in the second leg to punch their tickets to Budapest.
The supercomputer rates PSG at 60.95% to come out on top against Bayern, who only have a 39.05% chance of completing what would be a legendary comeback at the Allianz Arena next week.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Winner After Seismic Semifinal First Legs.
