And just like that, we’re down to 16 teams fighting it out to win the 2026 World Cup.
The round of 32 was full of excitement. Big names like Germany, Croatia and Japan were eliminated, and Argentina came perilously close to joining that list in its all-time thriller against a Cabo Verde side that has won countless fans across the globe these past few weeks.
With the stakes jumping up once again for the round of 16, the Opta supercomputer has been whirring to predict the most likely winner of the tournament.
Supercomputer Predicts World Cup Round of 16
The team given the best chance of progressing to the quarterfinals this summer is France, boasting a whopping 86.62% chance of overcoming Paraguay and advancing.
Behind France sits Argentina. A favorable draw against Egypt means Lionel Messi is already expecting to secure a spot in the next round, although Argentina nearly came unstuck against Cabo Verde and would be wise not to get ahead of itself at this point.
Morocco has the third-highest chance of progressing, given odds of 67.01% of beating Canada and booking a spot in the quarterfinals.
Brazil (65.55%) and Spain (62.16%) are both expected to make it through, while Colombia (56.61%), England (55.59%) and the USMNT (50.96%) are narrow favorites for their respective ties.
| Fixture | Most Likely Winner |
|---|---|
| Canada vs. Morocco | Morocco (67.01%) |
| Paraguay vs. France | France (86.62%) |
| Brazil vs. Norway | Brazil (65.55%) |
| Mexico vs. England | England (55.59%) |
| Portugal vs. Spain | Spain (62.16%) |
| USMNT vs. Belgium | USMNT (50.96%) |
| Argentina vs. Egypt | Argentina (79.72%) |
| Switzerland vs. Colombia | Colombia (55.61%) |
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Supercomputer Predicts 2026 World Cup Winner
France was seen as the favorite after the group stage, and the supercomputer has actually raised Les Bleus’ chances of winning after the round of 32, now sitting at a lofty 28.89%.
That puts Didier Deschamps’s team comfortably ahead of the competition. Argentina’s chance of winning has actually increased slightly to 16.32%, but still comes nowhere near France’s high rating.
Spain (12.96%) is the only other country that has a chance of lifting the trophy over 10%. Brazil (9.11%) and England (8.14%) are now seen as outsiders.
Looking at the three co-hosts, it is Mexico that sits highest, although 2.68% is far from convincing. The USMNT (2.06%) sits comfortably above Canada (0.51%).
| Nation | Chance of Winning |
|---|---|
| France | 28.89% |
| Argentina | 16.32% |
| Spain | 12.96% |
| Brazil | 9.11% |
| England | 8.14% |
| Portugal | 5.00% |
| Colombia | 3.38% |
| Morocco | 3.21% |
| Norway | 2.86% |
| Mexico | 2.68% |
| Switzerland | 2.12% |
| USMNT | 2.06% |
| Belgium | 1.98% |
| Canada | 0.51% |
| Egypt | 0.50% |
| Paraguay | 0.29% |
