It's not been an ideal start to the season for Chelsea. The Blues have struggled to keep up to speed so far this term after a testing pre-season and have seen Thomas Tuchel replaced after a busy summer of transfers in and out of the club.
It's still early doors with much to play for but Chelsea have struggled to put wins on the board with very tight victories over Everton, Leicester and West Ham the only times the club have earned three points this term. Tuchel's final game against Dinamo Zagreb and Graham Potter's opening endeavour against Red Bull Salzburg has seen a winless start to Chelsea's Champions League campaign.
There's little doubting the work required from Chelsea's new head coach and while the Blues are only eight games into the season, the pressure is already on if Potter wants to meet the standards his new club have become accustomed to. Apparently, Chelsea are already on the back foot.
READ MORE: Thomas Tuchel's major problem that Graham Potter must solve to find immediate success at Chelsea
Chelsea still have their most difficult fixtures to come in Group E of the Champions League with a double-header against AC Milan awaiting following the international break. That tells in forecasting experts FiveThirtyEight's predictions.
Potter's side are predicted to have a 44% chance of still qualifying for the last 16 by making one of the top two spots of Group E, with a 20% chance of topping the group, 24% of finishing second, 32% of finishing third and 24% chance of languishing at the bottom of the group.
Their Group E opposition are not all rated as having a stronger chance at qualifying, however, despite the Blues sitting bottom of the table at the moment. Milan are deemed to have a 73% chance of progressing, Salzburg 62% and Dinamo Zagreb just 21% despite holding second place in the table after defeating Chelsea in the opening round. The Blues are even deemed to have a 2% chance of winning the competition, higher than that of their Serie A opposition. Currently, Bayern Munich are favourites for the competition (22%) ahead of Manchester City (20%) and PSG (14%).
It is perhaps the Premier League that offers Chelsea more concern, however. While the Blues have yet to find their form, they still sit in sixth place in the table, which is not too far away from Champions League qualification all things considered. Despite some hefty competition, the squad will hope to see their outcome improve.
FiveThirtyEight suggests they will have their work cut out and the Blues are currently expected to finish fifth in the league and have a 36% chance of qualifying for the Champions League. That sees Chelsea sit behind Man City (96% chance of Champions League qualification), Liverpool (76%), Tottenham (53%) and Arsenal (52%), while Manchester United sit sixth with 26% chance and Brighton seventh with 25% chance of making the top four. The Blues are ranked as having a 3% chance of winning the title.
If such an outcome comes true, the understanding that Potter's position is safe regardless of Champions League qualification will be tested come the end of the season and supporters will know how long-term Todd Boehly's thinking truly is.
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