If there is a hypothetical whiteboard at IMG’s luxurious towers plotting the credentials Super League needs to become the global phenomenon all rugby league fans hope it can be one day, there will be a few areas of interest to target.
Some, you could argue, are in place. Most neutrals would agree Super League often provides entertainment and the competition’s athletes are world class. The challenge for IMG, as part of its 12-year plan to take the game to new heights, is to market those athletes properly. But beyond that, perhaps the one thing any competition needs to capture new eyes and ears is unpredictability.
And in truth, Super League hasn’t quite had that for a prolonged period of time. The proof? This year marks 20 years since a new team lifted the grand final trophy at Old Trafford. Leeds were the last first-time winners in 2004: they have won it seven times since then. And if it hasn’t been Leeds then it’s been Wigan – six-time winners – or St Helens – 10-time champions.
The only other winners, Bradford Bulls, are no longer in Super League. While the competition brings entertainment and drama, the same clubs have had a stranglehold on the one game which matters more than any other when the chips are down. That feels like a problem for the potential to captivate the wider public.
To put that into context, it is sensible to examine other sports since 2004. The Premier League has had four first-time winners in the last 20 years (of course, football did exist before 1992), rugby union’s Premiership has had seven champions in the past two decades, five of them new champions. Even Australia’s National Rugby League has had four first-time champions since 2004: and 11 different winners in 20 years.
Super League has got close: five teams have reached their first grand final in that time but on every occasion they have been bested by St Helens, Wigan or Leeds. But for those who crave unpredictability, there is perhaps an encouraging changing of the guard on the horizon. As we enter the final six rounds of the season and prepare for Magic Weekend at Elland Road this week, there is a different feel to the table.
Yes, Wigan are joint top and still favourites to win at Old Trafford. But they are not in first place: that honour, on points difference, goes to Hull KR, without a major trophy since 1985 and themselves looking to reach the grand final for the first time. “The competition is in a great place that it has clubs like Hull KR now challenging that status quo,” their coach, Willie Peters, tells the Guardian.
Peters had a brief spell with Wigan as a player in 2000 and his perception of Super League today is very different to the one he remembers over 20 years ago. “When I was over here as a player it was a top three or four then a huge gap to the rest. That’s changed now, considerably. It becomes boring watching the same teams winning. Having new teams win things drives new fans to your sport.”
Rovers are not the only team with a realistic chance of a first grand final triumph in 2024, either. While many expect the reigning league and world champions Wigan to still be at Old Trafford, their opponent is far less clear. St Helens, having won four successive titles between 2019 and 2022, sit fourth and do not quite look like a side capable of winning the grand final as things stand.
Sam Burgess’s Warrington – two points behind Hull KR and Wigan – certainly do, though. Catalans Dragons are fifth and a bona fide threat. Salford, despite being one of Super League’s lowest spenders, are a match for anyone on their day and are of the genuine belief they can get all the way to what would essentially be a home game, just down the road at Old Trafford.
Would it matter if it were the same name on the trophy again? Or now, 20 years on from the last time someone tasted success for the first time, does Super League desperately need a new look to its champions? “We don’t know, because we haven’t experienced it for so long,” the RL Commercial chief executive, Rhodri Jones, says.
“A new name on the trophy would provide narrative but you want the best two teams on the pitch at Old Trafford. The unpredictability is what we’re really all striving for. We want nothing to ever become a foregone conclusion. The cream generally does still rise to the top for a multitude of reasons but that would be boring if it happened for ever, I do accept that.”
The race to get to the grand final will be compelling. The top eight – Leeds and Leigh are the other two teams in the mix – all face one another at the upcoming Magic Weekend. As Peters insists, your average weekly round certainly has less predictability about it; London Broncos were not expected to win a game this year but in the last fortnight, they have beaten Catalans and run Warrington close.
The gap between the best sides and the rest has narrowed for many reasons, with the fact more teams spend the full salary cap arguably the big leveller. It means nothing can really be ruled in or out over the remaining six weeks and the scramble for top spot – which in itself brings a trophy, the League Leaders’ Shield – between Wigan, Hull KR and Warrington could be significant.
But if it ends with another familiar outcome and we tick into a 21st successive season without a first-time winner of Super League, the unpredictability we have seen across this season counts for nothing. IMG will hope that, in a decade’s time, its version of Super League has eight, nine – or all – teams competing for the title. We have made strides in that regard, but we are not there yet.
Only if Hull KR, Warrington, Salford or Catalans lift the trophy at Old Trafford in mid-October will we truly know whether or not the game could benefit from a change.
