As the Kansas City Chiefs prepare for their third Super Bowl in the last four seasons, they are well aware that in the Philadelphia Eagles, they might well be facing the toughest of all their Super Bowl opponents. The Eagles, expertly constructed by general manager Howie Roseman and his staff, and coached just as well by Nick Sirianni and his guys, don’t appear to have a real weakness.
When facing a team this complete, and considering that team’s ability to break into any of your own vulnerabilities, it becomes more important than ever to maximize the things you do well, bump the trends that are in your favor, and hide as much as you can those things that could have you losing the biggest game of the season.
Here are four things the Chiefs will have to do if they want the franchise’s third Lombardi Trophy.
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus, Sports Info Solutions, and Football Outsiders unless otherwise indicated).
Run the damn ball.
Have we mentioned enough how Chiefs general manager Brett Veach and his staff absolutely nailed the 2022 draft, especially the later rounds? Probably not, so let’s start correcting that now. And we can certainly start with running back Isiah Pacheco, who the Chiefs stole with the 252nd pick in the seventh round. As you might expect, it took a minute for Pacheco to become a foundational part of Kansas City’s offense… but once he did, it’s been the case ever since.
From Week 10 through the Conference Championship games, Pacheco ranks ninth in the NFL with 148 carries, third in rushing yards with 754, second with 5.1 yards per attempt, seventh with 469 yards after contact, sixth with 3.19 yards after contact per attempt, and tied for fifth with six runs of 15 or more yards. The Chiefs have jumped from 20th in Rushing DVOA in the first 10 weeks of the season to fifth, and here’s your primary reason why.
And as much of a problem as the Eagles’ pass rush will be for the Chiefs, Philly’s run defense can get got. They rank 22nd in Defensive Adjusted Line Yards, and they’ve been specifically vulnerable in power and short-yardage situations. It’s one drawback of the Eagles’ hair-on-fire fronts that they will leave gaps open for enterprising runners, and Pacheco has proven to be just that.
This 31-yard Pacheco run against the Raiders in Week 18 is specifically important, because it shows him creating an explosive play against an aggressive five-man front, which the Eagles roll with a lot of the time. Kansas City blocked this up well, and then, Pacheco used his vision, burst, acceleration, and contact balance to turn it into a big thing.
It would be against type for Andy Reid to make most any game about his running backs, but between Pacheco’s abilities, and Jerick McKinnon’s knack for creating easy touchdowns as a receiver, maybe it’s time to row against one’s own tendencies.
Use more tight ends to mitigate Philly's evil pass rush.
If the Chiefs’ coaching staff decides that its left tackles can manage the Eagles’ edge-rushers without serious personnel and schematic help, the city of Philadelphia might as well finalize its plans for a Super Bowl parade right now. Tackles Orlando Brown Jr. on the left side, and Andrew Wylie on the right, have combined to allow the NFL’s most total pressures — 56 for Brown, and 53 for Wylie. Leaving those guys on islands against an Eagles outside pass-rush that can bring three different players (Haason Reddick, Brandon Graham, and Josh Sweat) with double-digit sacks this season would put too much on Patrick Mahomes’ plate, and lead Andy Reid’s offense down a dark path.
Now, Reid has an interesting counter in the Chiefs’ deployment of its tight ends in the 2022 season. Travis Kelce is the obvious rock star of the group, but there’s also Noah Gray, Blake Bell, and Joe Fortson. Mahomes has the NFL’s most dropbacks with two tight ends on the field this season (235), and he’s completed 159 of 221 passes for 1,692 yards, 814 air yards, 14 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 111.3.
Mahomes also has the NFL’s most dropbacks with three tight ends this season (74), and he’s completed 50 of 65 passes for 711 yards, 326 air yards, 11 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 151.3.
Perhaps most importantly for the purposes of this game, Mahomes has been sacked just six times in 2TE sets, and just three times in 3TE sets. He has been pressured overall a decent amount in each general package (83 pressures in 2TE sets and 25 in 3TE sets), but you know how it is with Mahomes — if he’s still standing or close to it, he can make something ridiculous happen.
The Chiefs have done a great job balancing those multiple tight end sets and their advantages in blocking with the potential for explosive plays. This 35-yard completion to Kelce against the Cardinals in Week 1 featured Kelce, Gray, and Fortson in a bunch to the right, close to the formation. While Gray stayed home to help Wylie with end Zach Allen, Kelce and Fortson ran a crosser that left Kelce just open enough on the over for one of Mahomes’ pinpoint completions.
If it’s played straight-up, the Eagles’ outside pass rush against the Chiefs’ offensive tackles is the biggest mismatch in this Super Bowl. Reid and his staff will have to scheme their way around it as much as possible.
Get the big guys going against the Eagles' inside run game.
The Eagles fully expect to mash their opponents with the inside run game, and that confidence is well-placed. This season, on runs to the left inside, middle, and right inside, they have a league-high 281 rushing attempts for 1,070 yards (only the Panthers have more with 1,142), 579 yards after contact (only the Panthers have more with 683), and a league-high 25 touchdowns — the Bengals and Steelers are tied for second with… 11. Led by the NFL’s best and best-coached offensive line, Philly’s inside game, full of man and zone double-teams, pin-and-pull mastery, and all the power/counter/trap stuff you can imagine, is the fulcrum of this offense.
The Chiefs’ run defense has been pretty consistently average this season. They ranked 15th in Defensive DVOA in the first half of the season, and 15th in the second half and into the playoffs. They’ve been average-to-below-average against power and short-yardage rushing situations. So, it’s entirely possible that defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will have to stock some extra beef in the middle, especially on early downs.
Fortunately, Spags has two guys who, combined together, have the capacity to deal with such run concepts. Khalen Saunders at 6-foot-0 and 324 pounds, and Derrick Nnadi at 6-foot-1 and 317 pounds, can at least keep this run game honest. Obviously, you don’t want these guys on the field at the expense of world-wrecker Chris Jones, so maybe this is a five-man-front game for the Chiefs.
It wouldn’t be the first time. On this Derrick Henry one-yard run in Week 9, Kansas City had a five-man run front with outside guys Michael Danna and Willie Gay, Jones and Carlos Dunlap at end, and Saunders at the nose. With linebackers Nick Bolton and Leo Chenal flowing to the run strength, Henry had nowhere to go, and gained just one yard.
When the Chiefs had to deal with Josh Jacobs and the Raiders’ run game this season, they’d sometimes put Nnadi and Saunders on the field at the same time. On this one-yard run in Week 18, Jacobs tried to bounce outside after finding little to go on inside, and with Gay crashing down to contain the outside run, Jacobs ran out of road.
Not that the Chiefs can go with base personnel and bear-style fronts all the way through the game — they’d be left too vulnerable to Jalen Hurts’ deep-passing acumen — but you can bet that Spags has burned the midnight oil to determine how best to deal with Philly’s intelligent smashmouth.
Trust your young cornerbacks on islands.
It stands to reason that if the Chiefs are using their fronts and linebackers to focus on the Eagles’ run game, their defensive backs are going to have to do more with less in certain packages. Which might be a problem against a quarterback in Jalen Hurts who has completed 24 of 63 passes of 20 or more air yards this season for 892 yards, 14.2 yards per attempt, 11 touchdowns, just three interceptions, and a passer rating of 105.7. Not to mention the need for true one-on-one matchups against receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Further complicating this is the fact that the Chiefs have four rookie defensive backs with serious playing time. Safety Bryan Cook (387 snaps), and cornerbacks Joshua Williams (499 snaps), Jaylen Watson (719 snaps), and Trent McDuffie (809 snaps) have all earned the trust of Kansas City’s defensive staff.
Watson, the seventh-rounder from Washington State, got this interception off Joe Burrow in the Conference Championship game by following receiver Tee Higgins in the slot in man coverage with no help up top. This would seem to be especially relevant were Watson covering DeVonta Smith in the slot.
McDuffie, the aggressive first-round cornerback out of Washington, might see one-on-ones against Brown on the outside, which is always a challenge. He doesn’t have any interceptions in his inaugural NFL season, but he does have eight pass breakups, and watching those is instructive as to how he might go about things when the focus is on the front. This deflection of a Trevor Lawrence pass to Zay Jones in Week 10 had the Chiefs with seven guys at the line, cornerbacks in press alignments out of Cover-1, and McDuffie tasked with following Jones up the chute, refusing to allow anything up top.
Against most offenses, it’s good enough to tie pressure to coverage. Against the Eagles, it’s equally crucial to tie coverage to run defense. Trusting those defensive backs on islands, and having that trust pay off, will be Job One for Steve Spagnuolo’s defense.
