SUPER BOWL LVII
Kansas City vs. Philadelphia
TV: Fox, 6:30 p.m.
THE LINE: Philadelphia -1.5; O/U: 50.5
Every Super Bowl has hype, but the 57th edition has the storylines to back it up. Patrick Mahomes vs. Jalen Hurts makes it the first Super Bowl to showcase two Black starting quarterbacks. Travis Kelce vs. Jason Kelce makes it the first Super Bowl to have brothers on opposite teams. Andy Reid vs. his old team makes it the fifth Super Bowl to have such an occurrence. Oh, and the Eagles’ new coach, Nick Sirianni, was once fired as a Kansas City assistant when Reid took over. There are similarities, too: Both 1 seeds have identical records (16-3), scored the exact amount of points (546), have star quarterbacks and are well-coached at every level. They even both won at Arizona during the season. One team has an edge, and here are three reasons why I believe the Eagles will win their second championship.
1. A MIGHTY FINE LINE ... ACTUALLY, TWO. It all starts up front for the Eagles, who steamrolled opponents all season thanks to dominant line play on both sides of the ball. Let’s start on offense, where Kelce centers a line featuring two stud tackles in Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata. The Eagles led the NFL with 32 rushing touchdowns during the regular season and were top 5 in yards (147.6) and attempts (32) per game. Chris Jones and Kansas City got after Joe Burrow in the AFC Championship Game as the Bengals were down three starting offensive linemen. The Eagles are at full strength, and Hurts should have a clean pocket. Speaking of pass rushes, the Eagles’ defense is on the verge of making history. After racking up 70 sacks during the regular season (the next closest team was Kansas City, with 55), the Eagles have added eight in the playoffs and need five in the Super Bowl to break the single-season record of 82. What’s most impressive is that four players have double-digit sack totals, led by Haason Reddick’s 16 (plus 3.5 more in the playoffs). Their depth is the key, as they rotate linemen and by the fourth quarter they’re fresher than a tired offensive line. Kansas City’s O-line is much improved from its last Super Bowl appearance two years ago when Tampa Bay got after Mahomes all night. Still, this will be their toughest test this season.
2. HURTS VS. WILL IT HURT? The end of the regular season centered around Hurts’ sprained right shoulder, as he missed Weeks 16 and 17 — both Eagles losses — before returning in Week 18 to secure a much-needed first-round bye in the playoffs. He’s healthy now, and the Eagles are 16-1 in games he starts this season. But what about his counterpart? Mahomes suffered a high right ankle sprain in the Divisional Round but played remarkably well just eight days later in the AFC title game. With two more weeks to heal, it shouldn’t be a major issue, but what if he takes a big hit from the Eagles’ pass rush early? He’s still not 100%, and that kind of injury limits his ability to improvise on the run, one of his calling cards. Kansas City will be without receiver Mecole Hardman, but JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney will be able to play.
3. GOING 4 IT. Converting on third downs is one of the biggest keys to being successful in the NFL, and Kansas City (48.9%) and Philadelphia (46.6%) ranked second and fourth, respectively. It’s the next down that could be a determining factor in Super Bowl LVII. A major reason I liked the Eagles to win their last Super Bowl appearance five years ago was because of coach Doug Pederson’s aggressiveness on fourth down. It paid off, and I believe Sirianni will gamble in similar situations and produce a win-win: Keep Hurts on the field and Mahomes on the sideline. The Eagles converted an NFL-best 25 fourth-down tries this season (71%) and aren’t afraid to push the envelope (or the pile). In the NFC title game, they went for it on fourth-and-1 from their own 34 in the second quarter of a 7-7 game. They got it, then marched down the field for a 14-7 lead. On third- or fourth-and-1 plays, Hurts has converted an incredible 27 of 31 tries, mostly with a little push from his friends. Hurts, the Eagles’ powerful run game and Sirianni’s bold approach aren’t afraid to do it.
THE PICK: Philadelphia
THE SCORE: Philadelphia 31, Kansas City 24
FINAL SAY: The Eagles were my pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl before the season started, and there’s no reason to pick against them now. They’ve been the best team all season when Hurts plays. They have the NFL’s most complete roster, and their ability to win at every level will show here. Their biggest advantage is likely their receiving corps of A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert against an inexperienced Kansas City secondary. It’s hard to pick against a talent like Mahomes, but he’s looked human in both trips to the big game. It’s almost as if people are underrating Philadelphia because it had a cakewalk in the playoffs and hasn’t been tested in what feels like two months. Hurts, along with his powerful offensive line, a relentless pass rush and an aggressive coach, will remind everyone just how super the Eagles are.
