It's a long way from a bust, but the booming property prices in Queensland’s two biggest regional centres are clearly cooling, with values now falling faster than almost anywhere else in the state.
The Sunshine and Gold Coasts in the state's south-east became a safe harbour for interstate migrants looking to flee the heavy COVID restrictions in New South Wales and Victoria throughout the pandemic.
The rush of new arrivals and subsequent demand for homes meant property prices surged consistently until earlier this year.
In the two regions – which sit north and south of Brisbane – property prices are still more than 40 per cent above what they were before the pandemic.
First to boom, first to fall
CoreLogic researcher Eliza Owen said as the COVID situation has eased, so too have property prices.
"This market was extremely popular through the COVID period," she said.
She said the data showed that Sunshine Coast housing prices have fallen by 6 per cent in the past three months and 2.5 per cent last month alone.
The Gold Coast recorded the second largest falls, coming down almost 5 per cent in the past three months and a touch under 2 per cent last month.
Cairns and the Darling Downs were the only two regional areas to buck the slowdown across the regions, with property values climbing by a fraction of one per cent.
Ms Owen said that was not a surprise.
“The areas that had the fastest up-swings in price are now experiencing the fastest drop-off,” she said.
Ms Owen said while the Reserve Bank of Australia continued to put up interest rates – as it did on Tuesday – so too would property prices edge down.
But it won’t be the same everywhere.
“Those areas that are more affordable and further from the coast of Queensland are going to be the slow and steady performers," she said.
"They're probably going to follow the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast into a bit of a downturn, but the extent of their downturns won't be as large."
Ms Owen said the two coasts would probably also enjoy the first signs of recovery.
Queensland's housing market
Metro property prices
| 1 month | 3 months | 12 months | Median value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Brisbane - East |
-2.1% |
-5.1% |
15.7% |
$873,343 |
Brisbane - North |
-3.0% |
-7.0% |
7.5% |
$839,244 |
Brisbane - South |
-2.5% |
-6.3% |
11.8% |
$944,495 |
Brisbane - West |
-1.9% |
-3.7% |
10.1% |
$991,466 |
Brisbane Inner City |
-0.9% |
-3.0% |
9.3% |
$730,469 |
Ipswich |
-0.6% |
-2.0% |
21.6% |
$550,242 |
Logan - Beaudesert |
-1.4% |
-2.6% |
22.2% |
$612,390 |
Moreton Bay - North |
-1.7% |
-4.0% |
16.9% |
$671,924 |
Moreton Bay - South |
-1.4% |
-4.2% |
12.9% |
$761,919 |
Regional property prices
| 1 month | 3 months | 12 months | Median value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cairns |
0.7% |
0.3% |
11.5% |
$464,686 |
Central Queensland |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
12.5% |
$377,459 |
Darling Downs - Maranoa |
0.2% |
1.9% |
18.0% |
$326,564 |
Gold Coast |
-1.9% |
-4.8% |
13.5% |
$867,542 |
Mackay - Isaac - Whitsunday |
-0.1% |
-0.5% |
8.3% |
$408,676 |
Queensland - Outback |
n.a |
n.a |
n.a |
n.a |
Sunshine Coast |
-2.5% |
-6.0% |
8.0% |
$951,626 |
Toowoomba |
-0.3% |
-0.1% |
18.7% |
$526,931 |
Townsville |
-0.4% |
-1.9% |
7.1% |
$355,510 |
Wide Bay |
-0.7% |
-1.0% |
20.1% |
$488,267 |
Source: CoreLogic, current as of September 2022)
Market goes 'from nuts to normal'
Matt Diesel heads the Real Estate Institute of Queensland on the Sunshine Coast and says while people "aren't enjoying" watching property prices fall, the change should not come as a surprise
"We've gone from a nuts market back to a normal market," he said.
"People have been able to take their time and look at properties, understand the values and make sure that they're doing the right thing for them and their families."
Mr Diesel said the whole of south-east Queensland would benefit as it prepared for the 2032 Olympics and that too would have an impact on housing prices.
"We've got the Olympic Games coming, which is an exciting thing for the whole region and for the whole of south-east Queensland," he said.
The excitement will likely bring a “good surge” in property prices, Mr Diesel says.
