Rishi Sunak has no alternative. The United Kingdom which Northern Ireland is part of is a democracy ruled by the Westminster parliament. In the matter of the Northern Ireland protocol, the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) is claiming the right of veto over a classic function of any union – foreign trade. The party is supported by the Tories’ recent leader and prime minister, Boris Johnson. This is intolerable.
Polls show support for the DUP hovering between 20-25%. It does not represent most of Northern Ireland’s people. Nor does it command a majority of unionist opinion, with official unionists, the extreme TUV and the Alliance party together garnering close to 30%. It is only the power-sharing Good Friday agreement that keeps the DUP with a veto, which it is using to halt the devolved government at Stormont until it gets its way against the protocol.
The new protocol that is being presented today by Sunak with the leaders of the EU breaks new ground in facilitating trade between the EU and its neighbours. All free movement within the UK has been protected. Excessive cross-border bureaucracy has been cut, businesses are reported happy, and Ireland’s collective economy has been safeguarded. The one outstanding question – over whether EU jurisdiction should extend over trade regulation – is an issue wherever trade takes place. All trade is a sharing of sovereignty.
There is no way the EU is going to leave its borders vulnerable to Northern Ireland’s veto-strewn democracy. Swiss cantons do not enjoy such delegated powers. Indeed, Britain must soon impose health and safety restrictions on the European produce flowing through Dover unchecked. Belfast cannot claim a unilateral authority over any UK trade.
Under Sunak’s leadership, dealing with the most intense challenges, the one thing his own party might offer him is unqualified support. Johnson has let it be known that he opposes the protocol, which he himself once described as “an ideal solution” to the Northern Ireland-Brexit conundrum. He then introduced a bill to wreck it if it did not suit the DUP, and has now declared the non-activation of that bill “a great mistake”, allegedly with a four-letter word in the Commons. He has allowed himself to become the focus of opposition to Sunak’s deal in the Commons.
When he was prime minister, Johnson slammed his fist on the table and told anyone who disagreed with his version of Brexit to get out. He cleared his party of dissenters. Sunak may be justified in responding in kind. Sunak will probably bring his deal to a Commons vote at some point. Though he will get Labour support to carry it through, he can reasonably impose a three-line whip on his own backbenchers. Should Johnson defy it, Sunak would only be mimicking his predecessor in withdrawing the whip and suggesting he might fight the next election as an independent.
As for Northern Ireland, if the DUP does not like being ruled from London and yet refuses to honour the spirit of devolution, its bluff should be called. A referendum on a new majoritarian constitution for the province should be announced. As the DUP knows well, this can only hasten eventual Irish reunification – the one silver lining on the Brexit cloud.
Simon Jenkins is a Guardian columnist
