Rishi Sunak’s plan to slash 300,000 from net migration into the UK is “by no means certain” to work, government advisers warned on Wednesday as they urged ministers against making promises about “unpredictable” future totals.
The Home Office’s Migration Advisory Committee said many of the factors which influence the annual net migration total – which hit a record 745,000 in official figures last month – were hard to control.
It said this made “very specific targets largely unworkable” and that the only “practical way” to control immigration on a visa route – which it said “almost all foreign nationals require” – was to impose “explicit caps” on numbers.
But it said this would “hamper the UK’s ability to respond to skill gaps, shortages or fast growing sectors” in a warning about the potential economic harm that caps would inflict.
The conclusions by the committee, in its annual report to Parliament, will add to the pressure on Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Home Secretary James Cleverly as they seek to deliver a promised 300,000 reduction in net migration.
The measures set out by the government include curbs on international students and care bringing dependants, a hike in the salary threshold for hiring skilled overseas workers, and a large rise in the earnings required for a foreign spouse to come to live in Britain.
In its report , however, the committee says that behavioural change by migrants in response to rule changes and other reasons including the limited control that ministers have over whether foreign nationals will stay long term in Britain once given a visa make it difficult to predict accurately what the impact of such changes will be.
“Net migration cannot be precisely controlled because the government does not control all the levers, making it difficult to hit a particular target,” today’s report states.
“The exact impact, for example, of the government’s package of measures intended to bring down net migration is by no means certain.”
The report says, for example, that the curb on international students – who it says bring a “clear economic benefit” to this country – from bringing dependants could result in other students without dependants taking up visa places.
It says that because of this and other uncertain factors the government’s plan to stop international students bringing dependants are only likely to achieve a long reduction of as little as 20,000 in annual net inflows
The committee adds: “It is impossible to reduce net migration precisely to a certain level, making very specific targets largely unworkable.
“Our analysis highlights how difficult it is in practice to have confidence in the likely impact of a particular policy change on long-run net migration, which suggests that policymakers may want to be cautious in the promises they make on future migration levels."
Professor Brian Bell, the committee chairman, added: “We know that recent figures have shown net migration reaching a record of 745,000 last year. We caution governments in making promises on specific migration targets given the challenges in predicting the effect of policies.”
In further findings, Prof Bell said that although there “are thousands of people across the country who are receiving care today that would not have been possible” without overseas care workers, the committee was “deeply concerned by the increasing reports of exploitation” of foreign staff employed in the sector.
He added: “The only long-term, sustainable solution is for the government to provide sufficient funds to enable local authorities and providers to pay care workers significantly above the minimum wage.”
On housing, today’s report points out that the increase in population caused by migration has helped to push up prices with the impact on areas where “native flight” has led to a drop outweighed by the rises caused elsewhere.
“Overall, the available evidence suggests that in the UK context where housebuilding has not kept pace with population growth, net migration has contributed to – but is by no means the only cause of – higher housing costs,” the report concludes.
